For years, Tyler Lockett has been a reliable WR2 in fantasy football. Coming off his worst season since 2017, is this the beginning of the end for Seattle Seahawks WR? What does Lockett’s projection for the 2024 season look like?
Tyler Lockett’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.2
- Receptions: 54
- Receiving Yards: 712
- Receiving TDs: 5.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Lockett This Year?
Since 2018, Lockett has been a WR2 in fantasy. He’s never been a WR1. But he’s also never been a WR3 or worse. He averaged between 13.8 and 16.6 fantasy points every year from 2018-2022. Unfortunately, in 2023, things took a turn.
Lockett’s streak of never finishing as a WR3 continued, but not for the reason fantasy managers like to hear. He completely bypassed falling into the WR3 range, finishing as a WR4. Lockett averaged 11.9 fantasy points per game, good for an overall WR37 finish.
Fantasy managers were expecting Lockett to decline last season, as the team spent a first-round pick on WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, the rookie didn’t really play a factor at all in Lockett’s down year.
Lockett’s 22.3% target share was nearly identical to his 2022 rate. He was also targeted on a similar number of his routes, going from 23.4% to 22.2%. Lockett’s aDOT (average depth of target) only dropped by 0.3 yards. Yet, his yards per route run plummeted from 2.07 to 1.63, and his yards per target also dropped considerably from 8.8 to 7.3. So … what happened?
One main issue is Lockett’s ability to beat man coverage is declining. Success against man coverage is one of the best predictors of receiver talent. Once upon a time, Lockett was excellent at it. Now, he’s 32 years old.
Tyler Lockett's efficiency dropped across the board in 2023. His open score dropped from 95 in 2022 to 70 in 2023.
Davante Adams open score
2020 – 99
2021 – 85
2022 – 81
2023 – 71Both players have been notably less productive vs. man coverage over the past two seasons. pic.twitter.com/h6DBM27N5s
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
This isn’t enough to say Lockett is completely finished, but it’s definitely concerning.
From 2018-2022, Lockett scored between eight and 10 touchdowns each season. Last year, he only scored five times. That, combined with a 7% drop in catch rate, helped contribute to his downfall.
I am projecting JSN to overtake Lockett as the second option in the Seahawks passing game this season. Barring a massive rebound by Lockett, it would be a scathing indictment of Smith-Njigba’s talent if he can’t earn more targets than the aging Lockett.
I have Lockett with a 19% target share, catching 68 passes for 787 yards and 5.9 touchdowns. That comes out to 10.74 fantasy points per game, putting him at WR47 in my projections.
Lockett’s ADP sits at WR50. I ranked him WR49. The PFN consensus projections put Lockett at WR58. There isn’t much of a difference in any of these numbers this far down the draft board.
The Seahawks underwent some changes on offense. Ryan Grubb takes over as offensive coordinator. That could lead to more downfield passing and a more explosive passing attack in general. There’s definitely a chance Lockett can surprise and bounce back. However, this is a game of probabilities, and we must act accordingly.
The most likely outcome is Lockett continues to decline, falling further into WR4 or WR5 territory. If he gets cheap enough, by all means, take a chance. However, I will opt to throw darts at younger players whose best seasons are almost certainly ahead of them, as opposed to a player who we know has his best season behind him.
