Tyler Boyd had 16 more catches when lined up in the slot than any of his teammates had targets in that alignment, further cementing his role in this explosive Cincinnati Bengals offense. Having a well-defined role is great, but does the seven-year veteran get enough chances on a regular basis to stash on your fantasy football bench?
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Tyler Boyd’s Fantasy Outlook
Boyd has posted nearly identical seasons since Ja’Marr Chase came to town and nothing has really changed from a roster perspective heading into 2023. Chase and Tee Higgins remain as the unquestioned top options for this Joe Burrow-led offense while Joe Mixon will again be featured in the run game.
Over the past two seasons, the Bengals rank third in percentage of yards gained through the air (72.6%), an offensive trend that is unlikely to change as long as Burrow is standing upright.
That would make them the type of offense that could sustain three pass catchers, but the fact of the matter is … that’s just really hard to do. The Eagles and 49ers were the only two teams to place three pass catchers in the top 40 on a per-game basis (minimum 10 games played) last season.
Can This Offense Sustain a Third Receiver?
Since Chase entered the NFL, Boyd has had one 20-point effort and 11 games under six fantasy points. This just in: that ain’t good. The idea of “sustaining” a third receiver implies enough weekly action to justify fantasy football starting roster consideration. Is that the case? Can it be the case?
Boyd’s percentage of routes run per catch:
- 2020 (pre-Chase): 15.5%
- 2021 (rookie Chase): 12.8%
- 2022 (breakout volume for Chase): 10.4%
There are going to be specific matchups where defenses lock in on Chase and/or Higgins, thus opening up an extra target or three for Boyd. Great. Maybe he can take advantage (he did have a pair of 100-yard games last season), but you’d really have to nail your analysis to both unearth that spot and start him over your “normal” WR3 or Flex option.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Boyd at His ADP?
The third banana in this passing game is being drafted just outside of the top-50 at the positon, landing him in the double-digit rounds, according to ADP.
That’s not too far from my guy Jakobi Meyers, all three Ravens receivers, and even a pair of guys in Skyy Moore and Romeo Doubs who have a reasonably clear path to a strong target share.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
Even the idea of Boyd being the benefactor of an injury in this receiving crops is a bit overstated. Last season, Boyd was targeted on 14.4% of routes when Chase was on the field and 15.3% when he was off. A minor bump, sure, but not enough for him to project as a fantasy starter, even if Chase were to get banged up.
I assure you that Boyd will pop as a DFS value at some point, but that’s where my exposure to him will end in 2023.
