Ty Johnson’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Following a change of scenery early in the 2020 NFL season, Ty Johnson saw an increased workload with the New York Jets as a change of pace back. Now with additional competition, including a highly-touted second-round pick, can Johnson carve out a path for reliable opportunities? Or does Johnson’s fantasy football outlook suggest he is simply a depth option for the team and someone to avoid at his ADP?

Ty Johnson’s fantasy outlook for 2021

When they are waived, most players hope to land on a team where they have a chance to make a run at the playoffs or a Super Bowl like Le’Veon Bell did in 2020. Well, the opposite was the case for Johnson as he went to a team vying for the No. 1 overall pick. Interestingly enough, it ended up working in his favor as he saw an increase in opportunities.

After recording 382 total yards on 87 touches in his rookie year, Johnson saw just a single target through the first two games of 2020. He was a healthy scratch in Week 3 and then waived by the Detroit Lions. The Jets acted quickly to sign Johnson as a depth piece behind Frank Gore, Bell, Josh Adams, and rookie La’Mical Perine.

Johnson went on to play 11 games for the Jets in 2020. He recorded 54 carries for 254 yards and 1 TD. Additionally, he caught 16 receptions (20 targets) for 99 yards and another score. Playing on 17% of the offensive snaps, Johnson ended the season as the RB69 in PPR formats while averaging 4.9 points per game.

Johnson saw most of his work come in Week 13

He got work against the Raiders in Week 13 and registered his first TD and 100-yard rushing game. It was the first 100-yard game by a Jets’ player in 39 games — yikes.

The issue moving forward is this is a different regime, and the team selected the likely starter in Michael Carter with the No. 54 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jets also signed Tevin Coleman, who has a rapport with HC Robert Saleh from their time in San Francisco.

While Johnson can work himself into a rotation, it’s unlikely he moves up the Jets’ depth chart any higher than the RB3 behind Carter and Coleman. Without an injury to an RB ahead of him, Johnson’s fantasy outlook is that of a rotational player at best who won’t see more than a handful of opportunities per game.

Fantasy projection

Deciphering a fantasy outlook for Carter is one thing. Making the projections for a rookie on a team with a brand new offense is an entirely different matter.

I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker. The most important addition came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. 

Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd). 

Based on draft capital and everything coming out of camp, the Jets are enamored with Carter. As a result, he should be on the breakout radar for 2021. Beyond that, Coleman would be the only RB we can project to have any significant amount of opportunities. 

Based on current projections, I have Carter and Coleman soaking up between 75-80% of the RB opportunities, leaving Johnson and Perine to fight over the rest.

In early projections, Johnson may see around 50 carries for close to 220-230 yards and 2 TDs with 6-8 receptions and 60 receiving yards.

Ty Johnson’s fantasy ADP

According to Sleeper, Johnson has an ADP of 285 in PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Johnson has an ADP of 265.63. On Fleaflicker, he has an ADP of 236.

Should you draft Ty Johnson for fantasy in 2021?

The ADP disparity for Johnson is one of the largest you will find for any player in fantasy football. While neither scream “buy,” drafters on Sleeper are much more willing to take a dart throw on Johnson. On NFC, he is the eight-lowest RB in terms of ADP, just edging out Kalen Ballage and the aforementioned Bell.

Without an injury or two, Johnson lacks any fantasy value and should go undrafted. Should his situation change mid-season, then it would be worth re-evaluating and deciding if he deserves a waiver add based on how the team is playing with its new scheme.