Heading into the 2020 NFL Draft, it was evident the Miami Dolphins needed to find their quarterback of the future. And that’s exactly what they did when they drafted Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa – otherwise known as The Left Arm of God – with the fifth overall selection. But what does this mean for Tua’s Superflex dynasty value going into 2020?
Last season, the Dolphins won five games with a roster that saw more overture than any team in NFL history. And although their grizzled veteran QB performed well, 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t be around forever.
From a fantasy perspective, Fitzpatrick ranked 17th in the NFL last season. He played better than most expected if we’re honest. But as we’ve seen in the past, Fitzmagic shows up only to be replaced by his significantly worse alter-ego Fitztragic, sooner rather than later.
As the draft approached, no one truly knew what to expect out of the Dolphins. Would it be Justin Herbert? What about an offensive tackle? Maybe, Utah State QB Jordan Love? When the dust settled, the best available QB in the draft fell right into Miami’s lap. And for Stephen Ross, Brian Flores, Chris Grier, a masterful plan was successfully executed.
With the 5th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama QB.
Now, let’s look at what it means for Tua’s dynasty value, particularly in Superflex formats, in 2020 and beyond.[sv slug=mocksim]
Tua Tagovailoa Superflex dynasty value following the 2020 NFL Draft
No reason to rush Tua in 2020
We know how important this pick meant to the fans. After all, it’s been twenty years since the Dolphins had a QB like Tagovailoa, a QB that could finally bring the organization a little bit of hope. The same holds true in fantasy football.
Tua’s impressive college career is no secret. He defeated Georgia in the National Championship game as a true Freshman in 2017 and has continued to have success in the toughest division in college football. During his three years in Tuscaloosa, Tagovailoa completed 474/684 (69.3%) for 7,442 yards and 87 touchdowns. He only threw ten interceptions at the collegiate level.
In my opinion, Tagovailoa is one of the best QB prospects to come out in years. And had it not been for an unfortunate season-ending hip injury, he might not have been available to the Dolphins at number five overall. But he was, and now we must start to think about what things are going to look like in Chan Gailey’s offense.
Looking at Miami’s QB situation long-term, there’s absolutely value in targeting Tagovailoa this year. But if Brian Flores and his staff were smart, they would take caution with Tua and ease him along slowly. The ultimate goal should be for him to be ready to start in 2021 with his supporting cast firmly in place. Maybe, that means Fitzpatrick plays the entire season, or Josh Rosen gets an opportunity to take some snaps.
No matter which scenario comes to fruition, this is a player that you’re going to want to have in fantasy football leagues.
Superflex, Dynasty, and Re-Draft Value
As I mentioned before, the biggest concern with Tua is his durability and whether or not it can withstand the NFL game. It is difficult for anyone to sit here and try to foresee the future. The best way to keep Miami’s investment upright is to spend resources fixing Miami’s offensive line, and that’s exactly what they’ve done this offseason.
In free agency, Miami signed Ted Karras and Ereck Flowers to help stabilize the offensive line. Two young, but experienced players to jumpstart the rebuild. Then Chris Grier and Brian Flores turned around and drafted USC’s Austin Jackson, Louisiana’s Robert Hunt, and Georgia’s Solomon Kindley. Finally, the Dolphins are doing what it takes to build a wall around their young QB.
But what does that mean for Tagovailoa?
His value in any fantasy format depends on his health. So, there’s always a gamble when drafting Tagovailoa. However, the reward greatly outweighs the risk. In dynasty leagues, you must decide if it’s worth one of the premiere RBs or WRs. It might not be depending on how your team is built. However, in Superflex leagues, he should be valued in the same conversation as Joe Burrow. That’s even if he doesn’t play this year. If you’re heading into your rookie draft with your eyes set on Tagovailoa, you have to feel confident at the situation he ended up in with Miami.
Draft Tua, No Matter What
We mentioned the offensive line and how Miami made it a premium to repair it this offseason. But what about the rest of the offense?
Miami’s run game was dreadful in 2019, and the team finished dead last in the NFL, averaging 72 yards per game. To fix the run game, the Dolphins set out to fix the offensive line and added 25-year-old RB Jordan Howard to a two-year-deal in FA. On Day 3 of the draft, Miami then sent a fifth-round pick to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for 25-year-old RB Matt Breida. There’s also Kalen Ballage, Patrick Laird, and several other running backs currently on the Dolphins roster.
However, forget the upgrades to the offensive line and RB room, let’s look at the rest of Tua’s arsenal of weapons.
DeVante Parker finally had the breakout season many anticipated, eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his NFL career. Preston Williams had a strong showing before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Allen Hurns played well enough to warrant a new contract, and Isaiah Ford stepped up big late in the year. Miami definitely has a nice arsenal of weapons at Tua’s disposal.
But what about the plethora of wide receivers that might not be around in 2020?
This list of players contains some bigger names like Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant, in addition to Mack Hollins, Gary Jennings, and several others. But while there’s uncertainty at the heart of Miami’s receiving corps, there’s no question who the TE1 is in Miami.
Mike Gesicki is coming off an impressive 51 receptions, 570 yards, and 5 touchdowns in his sophomore season. In Gailey’s offense, Gesicki could be used in the slot more, and it would be in Gailey’s best interest to figure out a way to attack defenses vertically.
In the end, you shouldn’t be scared to commit to Tua Tagovailoa in your dynasty Superflex league. Even if it doesn’t have an immediate payoff, and it likely won’t, the long-term success could set you up for years. Tagovailoa is as good as any QB in this class. With a newly rebuilt offensive line and a nice nucleus of weapons, Tua could have the Dolphins destined for AFC East supremacy sooner rather than later. And the same can be true for you.
Draft Tua Tagovailoa, No Matter What
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