Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has a legitimate case to be considered the greatest tight end of all time and caught 90+ passes for a sixth straight season in 2023.
Kelce will turn 35 in October, though, and has already broken the traditional age curve for the position. Should fantasy football managers expect more of the same, or is building in impactful regression the proper move?
Travis Kelce’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The Chiefs veteran signed a two-year extension this offseason, ensuring that he will continue to be a featured piece of Kansas City’s potent attack. That said, some sluggish stretches during the regular season have dropped Kelce’s ADP as low as it’s been since it became clear that he was an all-time great.
Touchdown Kansas City Chiefs!
Travis Kelce is the first TE to catch a touchdown pass on Kyle Hamilton this season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/zleuIv37uh
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 28, 2024
Kelce is currently being drafted as the TE2, a late third-round selection. In early drafts, we have something of a “Big Three” at the tight end position as we have had in years past, but the names are different next to Kansas City’s star (Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride have replaced Mark Andrews and George Kittle).
Within that tier, there’s a conviction among early drafters that LaPorta should go half-to-one round ahead of Kelce, with the same distance separating Kelce and McBride.
The peaks and valleys are a part of the TE position for most, so why pay top dollar for it?
- Games 1-4: 0 games with 70 yards
- Games 7-9: 0 games with 60 yards
- Games 13-15: 0 games with 45 yards
If not for the postseason (32-355-3 with an 86.5% catch rate), we as an industry would be dropping Kelce out of the top tier, suggesting to get out of this business a year too early rather than a year too late.
This is the rare skills vs. production debate. Do I think Kelce is an elite talent? Of course, and the playoffs proved as much. However, the regular-season dead patches indicate that this experienced team is wise. As long as they make the playoffs, the Chiefs have a chance to win it all because No. 15 is under center.
So why burn reps in November for a body that will be 35 years old at the expense of routes that will be much more valuable in January?
Kelce’s job is to win the Chiefs a title, not managers a fantasy championship. That’s why, if you do end up investing, a midseason sale is in the back of your mind.
- 2023: Scoreless in his final six games
- 2022: Scoreless in his final six games
- 2021: Under 35 yards in four of his final five games
I think what we got in 2023 is what we can expect in 2024. There’s nothing wrong with that, but is it 3+ rounds more valuable than what Evan Engram is going to give you? Or 7-8+ rounds better than T.J. Hockenson, an injured option who could be nearing form at the perfect time for fantasy managers?
Kelce is a Hall of Famer and will certainly be a critical piece in the Chiefs’ machine if they’re going to make a run at a third straight title.
However, Kelce also won’t be on any of my fantasy teams in 2024.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Travis Kelce
After failing to top 1,000 receiving yards in a season for the first time since 2015, fantasy managers are starting to wonder if Father Time is tapping Kelce on the shoulder. Now, Kelce did intentionally miss the final game of the year because the Chiefs had clinched a playoff spot, which means this streak would’ve likely continued if he had played in the season finale. But the fact that it would’ve taken a 17th game for Kelce to reach this mark suggests that his production declined in comparison to prior years.
Kelce is set to turn 35 this year, an age at which several productive fantasy options have not been seen in the past. Only Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe have caught 60+ passes for 700+ yards in a season at 35+.
That being said, the NFL game has changed quite a bit since those two Hall of Famers dominated the league. Kelce is in the conversation for the best player to ever play the position and still plays with Patrick Mahomes, which could make him an exception to the rule.
Kelce may no longer be selected in the first round of fantasy drafts, but his current ADP of No. 21 overall (TE1) suggests that you’re still paying a high premium for the veteran.
It’s hard to deny Kelce’s upside in the early portions of the second round at the position, which makes this ADP completely fair for a player with his track record.
If you believe Kelce showed signs of hitting the physical wall due to his age or think the other vertical playmakers the team added this offseason could eat into his target share, then you’re probably going to pass on him at this price.
I think Round 2 is still a fair price for Kelce and presents a great advantage upside at a position that has traditionally been barren once the elite options are off the board.