Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has become quite the polarizing player in fantasy circles. Undoubtedly a talented runner, his fantasy outlook rests on whether he is able to secure enough of the team’s receiving and goal-line work. Should fantasy football managers draft Etienne at his ADP this season?
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Travis Etienne’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Etienne is another one of those players with massive potential to swing fantasy teams. Some people are in. Some are out. Both have legitimate reasons. Let’s discuss them.
Let’s start with the good. Etienne averaged 5.7 yards per touch last season, 10th in the league. He was efficient on the ground, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, and 7.3% of his carries went for 15+ yards, the 12th-highest rate in the NFL.
Etienne is the unquestioned lead back playing with Trevor Lawrence in one of the league’s top ascending offenses. The Jaguars are probably going to score a lot of points this year. That’s good for Etienne.
Now for the not-so-good. Coming out of college, Etienne was pegged as this excellent receiver. We’ve seen the exact opposite in the NFL.
Etienne looks awkward catching the ball and was only able to command a 7.8% target share last season. Additionally, the Jaguars drafted a quality receiving back in Tank Bigsby. But that’s not all Bigsby does.
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Head coach Doug Pederson has openly discussed how the Jaguars struggled in short-yardage situations last year. Bigsby was brought in to specifically help with that, too.
Now, that doesn’t mean Bigsby is necessarily going to be the AJ Dillon to Etienne’s Aaron Jones (read: dominate all the goal-line work). But if it’s 70/30 Bigsby, that will severely cap Etienne’s upside.
Is Etienne a Good Fantasy Pick?
The answer to this question depends on where you stand. I have gone back and forth on Etienne all summer. I just can’t seem to get a good feel for which way I think the pendulum will fall.
On the one hand, Etienne is objectively a talented runner. There’s a very real chance concerns of his short-yardage struggles are nothing but a small sample size trap and completely overblown. Are we really expecting the Jaguars to pull Etienne at the goal line every time?
On the other hand, the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley and brought back Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. If Etienne isn’t catching passes, he’s going to be dependent on those touchdowns. If he’s not scoring touchdowns, either, he may not even be an RB2.
Etienne’s ADP sits at RB11, No. 28 overall. Ultimately, I settled on Etienne as my RB12, the same as our PFN consensus rankings. I’m right with ADP, but I don’t feel great about it.
My ranking of Etienne is real. It is exactly where I would take him among running backs. The way I typically get around that is I just won’t take a running back if he’s the top one on my board.
There are a lot of wide receivers, plus potentially one of the “big three” QBs, in play around where Etienne goes. I’m more apt to let someone else roll the dice on a volatile Round 3 pick.
