Thursday Night Football Projections and Start/Sit Advice: Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, and Others

The first Thursday Night Football game of the season will see the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in Arrowhead Stadium. This is a rematch of the AFC Championship Game when the Chiefs emerged victorious in a tight 17-10 game. Will we see another low-scoring game, or will these two exciting offenses find it easier after offseason upgrades?

Let’s examine what the sportsbook odds tell us about this game and see which players you should plan to start and sit on Thursday Night Football for fantasy football.

• Spread: Chiefs -3
• Total: 46.5
• Ravens implied points: 21.8
• Chiefs implied points: 24.8

The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.

Is Lamar Jackson a Slam Dunk Fantasy Starter in Week 1?

• Fantasy Points: 22.0
• Passing Yards: 228.0
• Passing TDs: 1.5
• Interceptions: 0.7
• Rushing Yards: 62.1
• Rushing TDs: 0.3

Do you think the Ravens will pull off the minor upset? Since the start of 2019, Jackson has cleared 18.5 fantasy points in every win as an underdog, averaging 23.7 points per game in the process. We know what Lamar Jackson brings to the table as a rusher (one of just four players with 750+ rushing yards in each of the past five seasons, with David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, and new teammate Derrick Henry being the others).

Jackson deserves QB1 consideration for this week when you consider that in those upset win spots, he’s essentially been Patrick Mahomes as a passer.

Underdog winner Jackson: 98.9 passer rating and 7.5 yards per pass
Mahomes since 2022: 99.1 passer rating and 7.6 yards per pass

Jackson completed 74.3% of his passes and averaged 10.3 rushing attempts through the first four games last season when Todd Monken had access to a fully healthy roster and all offseason to drill home his concepts.

Look for Jackson to be special in Game 1 of his MVP defense.

Will Patrick Mahomes Continue to Be a Fantasy Stud in Week 1 Games?

• Fantasy Points: 20.9
• Passing Yards: 271.4
• Passing TDs: 2.0
• Interceptions: 0.7
• Rushing Yards: 21.5
• Rushing TDs: 0.1

Remember all of those “Andy Reid after a bye” stats that we were beaten over the head with annually? Well, what is the offseason but one giant bye week?

The next time Mahomes is held under 19.5 fantasy points in a season opener will be the first. In those games, he averaged a difficult-to-comprehend 0.72 fantasy points per pass. For context. Brock Purdy authored one of the 10 most efficient QB seasons of all time in 2023, and that Mahomes’ mark is 16.1% greater than what Purdy produced.

Mahomes has seen his average depth of target (aDOT) decline each season, but the Chiefs made it clear this offseason with both their words and actions that 2024 will be different. He’s locked into your lineup every week and has the potential to dominate at any time, but I do think he is the second-most valuable QB in this game to kick off the season.

New Team, Same Old Derrick Henry for Fantasy Managers

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.3
• Rushing Yards: 64.9
• Rushing TDs: 0.6
• Receptions: 1.4
• Receiving Yards: 13.0
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

You drafted “The King” for spots like this, and I expect him to come through for you. Derrick Henry has cleared 16 PPR points in seven of his last nine games as an underdog, and I’d be surprised if the Ravens didn’t open the season with a smash-mouth look to free up Jackson to do Jackson things as the game goes on.

Kansas City allowed the fifth-most yards per carry to running backs last season, and I don’t think the team can routinely beat this Ravens defense enough to force Baltimore into a one-dimensional, anti-Henry game script. You’re playing Henry every single week, and I wouldn’t be concerned about this matchup.

Isiah Pacheco Remains a Fantasy Star with Little Competition

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.2
• Rushing Yards: 64.8
• Rushing TDs: 0.4
• Receptions: 2.2
• Receiving Yards: 14.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

There’s very much a path in which Pacheco is the most valuable running back in this game. His ADP rose late in the draft process as people finally acknowledged that Kansas City’s RB1 is so much more than simply a player who benefits from the respect defenses pay to Mahomes.

Pacheco had at least four red-zone touches or four targets in 11 of his 14 games last season, solidifying himself as a legitimate three-down back who is a fantasy RB1 across all formats.

MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor

He faces a Ravens defense that allowed the third-most yards per carry before contact to running backs in 2023 (only the Cardinals and Broncos were worse), and if you’ve seen a single clip of Pacheco, “first contact” is usually some poor soul who ends up in the first segment of highlight shows.

The quarterbacks in this game will be featured in preview shows and get MVP votes at season’s end, but don’t be surprised if this marquee game reminds you of old-school football with both backs doing the heavy lifting.

Is There a Case for Fantasy Managers To Sit Zay Flowers This Week?

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.4
• Receptions: 4.7
• Receiving Yards: 51.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

I think there is some post-hype potential in the profile of Flowers, though I’m not sure we will see it this week. Last season, the Chiefs allowed a league-low 4.4 yards per non-pressured pass attempt, a problem for an offense that will ask Jackson to take off when he feels the heat.

We saw Flowers airball at times during his first season (three games with under 20 receiving yards), and if he puts up a dud in this spot, I’d be sending trade offers before we even get to the weekend.

Interesting splits via @TruMediaSports for Zay Flowers

No end zone targets and less consistent usage with Andrews, but interesting that his aDOT was 64.7% higher when was on the field with Andrews.

There might be more upside in this #FantasyFootball profile than most assume pic.twitter.com/XiRYlbcuaI

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024

Flowers is known for his ability to excel in tight windows, a skill he showcased last season with 46 catches within five yards of the line of scrimmage (fourth-most in the NFL last year). Combine that with Monken’s willingness to run him downfield when he has all of his chess pieces available and there’s certainly a path to a significant Year 2 breakout.

Still, Kansas City was the third-best defense in terms of yards per attempt on those dump-off passes, fueling my WR3 ranking of Flowers this season. That puts him in the same tier as secondary options like DeVonta Smith, Stefon Diggs, and Tee Higgins – outside of the top 20.

Those top-20 receiver days, however, could be upon us sooner than you think.

Should Fantasy Managers Buy the Hype on Rashod Bateman?

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.8
• Receptions: 2.5
• Receiving Yards: 33.8
• Receiving TDs: 0.1

The preseason buzz got some people interested, and I’ll admit that I believe in Monken. But I am happy to be late to the Bateman party. And not fashionably late. So late that people wonder if I got the dates mixed up or just generally don’t like the crowd in attendance.

We have seen Bateman in 34 NFL games, and he’s offered up exactly two contests with more than 14 PPR points. Even with that low of a bar to clear, he set a career-worst target rate in 2023 and saw his aDOT rise by 11.4%.

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Normally, that spike in his depth of target would be interesting, but I’m reading it as Monken telling the fast kid on the playground to create space. Jackson posted the lowest aDOT of his career a season ago, and given the direction of the NFL, I’d expect that to repeat this season.

While on the Field, Rashee Rice Remains a Viable Fantasy Option

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.0
• Receptions: 4.8
• Receiving Yards: 56.9
• Receiving TDs: 0.4

The on-again-off-again suspension concerns this preseason bore no fruit, and it would appear that Kansas City’s WR1 is in the clear for at least the beginning of this season. If you drafted early, you stole Rice, and even if you didn’t, his ADP never fully recovered because of the looming concerns.

If you roster him, you’re in a great spot this season.

Rice’s rookie season began with managed reps (he had one game with over 60 receiving yards before Thanksgiving), and he became the first receiver to catch 7+ passes in four straight games started by Mahomes. Rice continued to shine through the postseason, catching 26 passes on 33 targets in the four-game run to an NFL title.

Critics will point to the low aDOT (5.2 yards), but those are the same people who question if Steph Curry would be effective without the 3-point line – why does it matter?

Weeks 1-13: 4.8 aDOT (0.3 deep targets per game)
Weeks 14-18: 6.0 aDOT (1.0 deep targets per game)

In his first season, Rice proved to be in the Deebo Samuel Sr. class of playmakers with the ball in his hands. And in an offense that is as creative as any in recent memory, who are we to doubt their ability to put Rice in a position to win?

Even in a tough matchup against a defense that allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt last season, Rice is a top-20 option at receiver and carries a very strong floor — start him for the Thursday Night Football festivities.

Can Rookie WR Xavier Worthy Make an Immediate Fantasy Splash?

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.4
• Receptions: 3.1
• Receiving Yards: 46.4
• Receiving TDs: 0.3

I like the general idea behind betting on Worthy this season. He’s a dynamic skill player who has an immediate opportunity in an elite offense. But he should sit out of your lineup on Thursday Night Football.

Both of these teams ranked slower than league average in terms of offensive pace a season ago, a concerning trend to take into a contest that features two of the three best defenses from a points-per-drive perspective.

I have my concerns about possession count in this game, and without a high quantity of opportunities, I worry that the quality won’t be enough for Worthy to produce a viable stat line.

In 2023, the Ravens allowed the lowest touchdown rate through the air and, as you’d expect, were stingy against the big play, allowing 8.9 yards per deep pass – the best in the NFL and 24.6% better than the league average.

Worthy will be on the field plenty with Brown sidelined, and that naturally gives this burner the potential to make a big play. That said, savvy fantasy managers will look elsewhere this week before considering the rookie next week when the Bengals (fifth-most yards allowed per deep pass last season) come to town.

Fantasy Managers Will Have To Wait for Hollywood Brown

The shoulder injury he suffered this preseason means he will have to sit for Thursday Night Football, and potentially longer.

Without a PUP designation, Brown can return whenever the team sees fit, but I’d be surprised if the Chiefs are anything but cautious. If we’ve learned nothing over the past two seasons, it’s that Kansas City prioritizes January/February and works backward from there.

The Chiefs go on bye in Week 6 and I would guess that they try to work Brown up to full speed by Week 5 to buy time during the off week and let his body recover.

Mark Andrews Remains a Fantasy Stud When Healthy

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.8
• Receptions: 4.2
• Receiving Yards: 51.6
• Receiving TDs: 0.4

Don’t let his injury last season fool you – this man deserves to be considered among the best at the position and could very well prove to be the best tight end on the field in the opener.

Andrews has at least flirted with 2.0 yards per route run in every season of his career and set a personal best last season by averaging 2.2 PPR points per target. He was used in the slot a career-high 69.7% of the time in 2023, something that provides me with even more confidence in his standing among the elite at the position.

You locked Andrews into your starting lineup the moment you drafted him. As long as he is on the field, that’s not going to change.

Fantasy Manager Should Be Watching Isaiah Likely This Week

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 4.6
• Receptions: 1.6
• Receiving Yards: 18.8
• Receiving TDs: 0.2

There is some sleeper appeal here given the athletic profile and the proven ability to produce at a high level. Likely’s route participation numbers are something I’ll be tracking during this game, but he’s on the short list of my favorites to be hot pickups during the first waiver run of the season.

READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football Sleeper Tight Ends for 2024

If you have a roster spot reserved for a lottery ticket, I’d consider making this move for free now and seeing how Monken runs this offense.

Should Fantasy Managers Be Concerned About Travis Kelce This Week?

• Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.3
• Receptions: 5.2
• Receiving Yards: 61.1
• Receiving TDs: 0.5

It’s the marathon that scares me with Kelce, not the Week 1 sprint. I wrote in multiple spots this preseason that spending a second-round pick on the GOAT wasn’t for me, and I stand by it. But I don’t plan on looking all that smart after the season opener.

Kelce, who sat out Kansas City’s first game last season, had scored 17+ PPR fantasy points in three straight Week 1’s and has caught 20 of 22 targets in those contests.

We will see some ugly football this week as teams look to develop a rhythm, but that’s not likely to be the case when it comes to the Mahomes/Kelce tandem.