The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have faced off 122 times in the regular season. Week 15 Thursday Night Football could be epic for fantasy football, as it pits two of the AFC’s top five teams against each other. And because you care about NFL DFS, we’ve run through potential game scripts to assemble the optimal lineup: a great shot at winning in 50/50 contests and a decent shot at placing in tournaments. As always, our Week 15 Thursday Night Football DFS picks are based on FanDuel pricing.
12/16/21 Update: Austin Ekeler is officially active for tonight’s game.
Top NFL DFS picks for Week 15 Thursday Night Football | Chargers
It’s been nine games since a Chargers-Chiefs contest produced less than 41 combined points. There’s a lot to like about Los Angeles’ offense this season. So this lineup assumes another high-scoring game, led by the team’s top three offensive weapons.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers ($16,500)
If you believe in Patrick Mahomes, he costs only $500 more and fits within the salary cap. But for my money, Justin Herbert is the better play Thursday night. The Chargers’ franchise QB is averaging 2.5 more fantasy points per game than Mahomes. And when it comes to pass defenses, there’s no debate.
Los Angeles is yielding an 88.5 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks, 2.6 points less than Kansas City. The Chargers are also allowing roughly two fewer fantasy points per game to opposing QBs than the Chiefs. For these and many other reasons, if you’re playing the probabilities, Herbert is the better play.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers ($14,000)
Is there anyone fantasy managers enjoy rostering more than Austin Ekeler? Yes, Jonathan Taylor is obvious, as is Derrick Henry when healthy. But Ekeler is money in the bank. His lowest fantasy-point output this year was 9.5 points in Week 6 against the Ravens’ vaunted defense. Even Taylor had two worse games.
Ekeler is the RB2 despite averaging only 12.4 carries per game. He remains dominant in the passing game (a nearly league-high 58 receptions) and has scored 16 times. The Chiefs are allowing a robust 4.6 yards per rush attempt. Battling an ankle injury, Ekeler has practiced this week and should be out there Thursday barring a setback.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($12,000)
My friends know how much I like to draft Keenan Allen. It’s not that I reach for him; it’s just that he’s chronically undervalued in the preseason. This summer, his ADP (WR9) finally made sense, but I was still able to snag him with the 23rd overall pick.
More reliable than half or more preseason RB1s, Allen is a reception machine. The 29-year-old will end the season at around 740 catches, or about two-thirds of the way to being No. 5 on the all-time receptions list, and nearly halfway to No. 1. He hasn’t had a single-digit fantasy day all year. At $12,000, he’s a bargain. Given his ceiling, Allen belongs in every DFS lineup.
Top NFL DFS picks for Week 15 Thursday Night Football | Chiefs
Which Chiefs players can we use in our Thursday Night Football DFS lineup? These options are more likely than not to exceed expectations.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($11,500)
We have $17,500 left, and I believe it’s essential to snag a Kansas City running back. Why? Because while the Chargers are solid against the pass, they are beatable against the run, giving up 4.7 yards per carry. In fact, opposing backfields are averaging 26.94 fantasy points against them, which is the fifth-highest mark in the NFL.
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While CEH still isn’t running very well (back-to-back games with less than 4.0 yards per carry), we can let it slide, as he was facing the Broncos and Rams. His opponents also have included the Bills, Browns, and Ravens. So Edwards-Helaire is (a) the bell cow and (b) undervalued given his tough defensive schedule. He ran over the Chargers in Week 3, and he can do it again.
Byron Pringle, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,000)
The last player in a DFS lineup is usually the toughest to sell. I mean, we all like 20-point fantasy performers, right? But the salary cap means sometimes we can’t get everyone we want. If we didn’t believe in Ekeler or Allen, we could downgrade — for example, swapping out Ekeler for the $11,500 Mike Williams, and then trading Byron Pringle for Mecole Hardman or Dustin Hopkins.
But let’s not poo-poo Pringle quite yet. Josh Gordon is on the COVID list, and Pringle’s averaged 59%-72% of the team’s offensive snaps the past four games. He’s a small TD threat with 3 scores on the season. If you catch a break with him Thursday night, this lineup could be a big winner.
Top NFL DFS picks for Week 15 Thursday Night Football | Backup option
As referenced above, if you don’t trust Ekeler — or if Ekeler (game-time decision) sits or is on a snap count — I’d recommend keeping Herbert and Allen and swapping in these three new players.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($13,000)
In his last two games, Tyreek Hill has 6 receptions for 98 scoreless yards on 9 targets. In one of those statistical oddities that make sports seem otherworldly, this is Hill’s worst two-game stretch since Weeks 5 and 6 last season, when he had — you guessed it — 6 receptions for 98 scoreless yards on 9 targets. And the last time he had a worse two-game stretch was in 2016. The point is, this is an anomaly. Hill is expensive in DFS, but his ceiling remains sky-high.
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($11,500)
It’s been a strange split season for Mike Williams — elite through Week 5 and nearly unstartable ever since. Still, if Ekeler is out, we would assume more weight will be put on Herbert, which could translate into more attention on Williams, whose upside is on par with Allen’s.
Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,000)
There are many reasons to prefer Mecole Hardman over Pringle, and in this backup lineup, he fits within the salary cap. Hardman’s ceiling has never been very high, although a Hill-Hardman stack makes sense in 50/50 DFS competitions. We should assume they’ll combine for 25+ points, with a decent shot at 30+. At $7,000, Hardman is worth a dart throw.
