Week 4 is in the books, and now things are getting all too real. It’s time for Thursday Night Football, and if you’re making Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts prop bets for Week 5, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.
Broncos vs. Colts Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Broncos Prop Bets
Russell Wilson has had two good games statistically and two not-so-good games. And even in his good games, he hasn’t generally looked like the future Hall of Famer he is. Facing a Colts defense that is No. 2 against the run (rushing yards per carry), I’m betting that Wilson will need to throw more than usual — particularly given the chaos of his backfield with Javonte Williams out for the year.
Speaking of chaotic backfields (and yes, I’m still talking about Denver’s), Melvin Gordon III should get the first shot at the No. 1 role. That said, this is teetering on a “hot hand” situation. Mike Boone and Latavius Murray loom. Wagering in favor of a big day for Gordon assumes he’ll run away (literally) with the starting job. Against Indy, that doesn’t seem realistic.
That means more volume for pass catchers, including Wilson’s two best receivers: Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. The Colts are more vulnerable through the air, and I believe that’s how the Broncos will ultimately win this contest.
Wilson passing TDs over 1.5 (+105) — BetMGM
Wilson interceptions under 0.5 (-120) — BetMGM
Gordon rushing attempts under 14.5 (-105) — BetMGM
Gordon receiving yards over 12.5 (-115) — BetMGM
Sutton receptions over 4.5 (-140) — BetMGM
Sutton receiving yards over 64.5 (+120) — BetMGM
Jeudy receptions over 3.5 (-160) — BetMGM
Jeudy receiving yards over 50.5 (-115) — BetMGM
Colts Prop Bets
Matt Ryan is on pace for 34 turnovers and 64 sacks. The post-Andrew Luck era has been a minor disaster for a team that’s often been one “great” QB away from making a Super Bowl push. With Jonathan Taylor out, circumstances look even bleaker. Sure, Ryan’s a professional. He’s dug out of holes before. But Father Time cannot reverse his age and immobility.
And so, we’re left wondering if we can trust Nyheim Hines, who’s been a complementary back since entering the NFL. That said, he was a bell cow (of sorts) in his final collegiate season, and Indy might decide to work him as heavily as they’ve worked Taylor. Hines clearly is the most talented healthy back on this team, so that has to stand for something.
Through the air, Michael Pittman Jr.’s targets have dropped each week he’s seen the field. I’m betting that turns around. Whether that translates into 70+ yards is another question. The ascending Alec Pierce and Ryan’s usage of his tight ends could cap Pittman’s upside further if this is a low-scoring, field-position-driven game. But if the Broncos jump out early, we might see a more aggressive, Ryan-implemented game plan.
Ryan rushing yards under 2.5 (-130) — BetMGM
Hines receptions over 3.5 (-130) — DraftKings
Pittman over 5.5 receptions (+106) — FanDuel
Pittman under 66.5 receiving yards (-115) — DraftKings
Pierce receptions over 2.5 (-165) — BetMGM
Pierce receiving yards over 34.5 (-114) — FanDuel