The New England Patriots rode the NFL’s easiest schedule to the Super Bowl last season. That cushion is gone.
That reality split the latest PFSN Football Debate Club. Patriots beat writer Doug Kyed argued the Patriots can repeat. NFL analyst Jacob Infante saw a much harder road. The numbers back both of them, which is what makes 2026 so hard to read.
Why the Patriots’ 2026 Schedule Got Much Tougher
Infante’s case starts with the map. “I still think they’ll be good, but that schedule is going to be a lot more difficult,” he said. “You’re looking at their out-of-division opponents. They’re facing probably the two toughest divisions in the NFL, the NFC North and the AFC West.”
He’s pointing at real teeth. New England draws the entire AFC West and NFC North in 2026, then adds the Jaguars and Steelers, plus a date with the champion Seahawks.
“It’s going to be tough to consistently take down the Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, and then all of the opponents in the NFC North,” Infante said. “You’re playing the Jaguars and the Steelers. Both teams made the playoffs. And then obviously the Seahawks who won the Super Bowl. That’s a gauntlet.”
The records say he has a point. By 2025 win percentage, New England’s opponents form the sixth-toughest slate in the league. The Patriots play nine games against last year’s playoff teams, including the Jaguars, who went 13-4, and the Steelers, who went 10-7. That is a long way from the soft slate that helped fuel a 10-win jump in 2025.
The Case for a Patriots Repeat
Kyed didn’t ignore the names. He pointed to a different metric. “Yes, they did have the easiest schedule in the NFL last year, 1,000 percent,” he said. “Based on the over-under win totals, they have the 12th easiest this year.”
He’s right on that count. Using projected 2026 win totals, PFSN ranks New England’s schedule 11th-easiest, in part because several daunting 2025 opponents, the Jaguars and Steelers chief among them, are projected to slide back.
“So, you look at the schedule, it looks like a gauntlet. It’s really not that difficult,” Kyed said. He also expects a better team. “The Patriots as a whole should be better this season. On defense, they added some guys, added offensive line help, added wide receiver help. Maye should be better. So I think they should still contend this year and closer to repeat.”
The roster math is fair. New England spent its first-round pick on tackle Caleb Lomu, reinforced the defense, and is the favorite to land A.J. Brown. Maye, the MVP runner-up, should only climb.
The Patriots should still be a playoff team. But repeating as AFC champion, after the softest schedule in football flipped to one of the league’s hardest by record, is a different ask entirely. Good is the floor. Great will be harder to reach.
