After scoring just 13 points combined in their last two games — both on the road — the Atlanta Falcons return home and try to find their offense again. Let’s look at the odds for today’s matchup with the Houston Texans.
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Texans vs. Falcons Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Falcons -2
- Moneyline: Texans (+110); Falcons (-130)
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Game time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Channel: FOX
Texans vs. Falcons Prediction
It’s hard to imagine the Falcons playing any worse the last two weeks, with 13 total points, one touchdown, and four turnovers.
It’s also hard to imagine the Texans playing any better the last two weeks, as they have outscored their opponents by a combined 67-23 score. They have also racked up an average of over 400 total yards per game (408.5) in wins over the Jaguars and Steelers.
And yet, the Falcons come in as the betting favorite.
Why?
Well, for one, Atlanta returns after back-to-back road games, and its offense, while not exceptional, has looked much different at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In their two home games, the Falcons averaged 24.5 PPG and had just one turnover.
But perhaps the biggest reason for the Falcons being the favorite at home is the home-road contrast of quarterback Desmond Ridder. In his two home games this season, Ridder has a passer rating of 93.1 and a completion percentage of 68%. On the road the last two weeks, those numbers were 66.8 and 58%.
In his NFL career, the Falcons are 4-0 in Ridder’s home starts and 0-4 in road starts.
His counterpart at quarterback, rookie C.J. Stroud, has looked impressive so far. With his 306-yard passing performance last week vs. the Steelers, Stroud became the first player in NFL history to have at least 1,200 passing yards and zero interceptions in his first four career games. He is also a top-three NFL QB in yards per pass attempt (8.0).
Stroud will be facing a Falcons defense that hasn’t exactly put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta’s five sacks are the second-fewest in the NFL, behind only the Giants (4).
Although they rank 30th in yards per carry (3.1), the Texans are still coming off season highs in rush attempts (38), rush yards (139), and yards per carry in the win over the Steelers last week.
As impressive as Stroud has been so far, there’s another rookie in this game having a terrific start as well, as Falcons running back Bijan Robinson entered Week 5 tied for third in the NFL in rush yards with 318. Robinson is responsible for 36% of the Falcons’ scrimmage yards — if that were to hold, it would be the fourth-highest percentage by a rookie in NFL history.
So, when it comes to betting this game, while it goes against all the recent trends in the two teams’ performances, I like the Falcons here. They are clearly a different team at home than on the road, so a spread of less than a field goal seems feasible here.
In addition, the Texans are trying for their third straight win, which hasn’t happened since 2018. Houston is also just 1-12 against non-divisional opponents over the last two seasons (that win did come last week, in all fairness).
Houston has clearly been the better of the two teams this season, especially considering it has a win at Jacksonville, while Atlanta was dominated by the Jaguars in London last week.
Look for the home team to show up here. If you’re going to put your money on Desmond Ridder, do it when he’s at home.
Best Bet: Falcons -2 (-110 at DraftKings SportsBook)
