The Houston Texans clinched their playoff spot in Week 16 as winners of the AFC South. However, they entered the AFC playoff bracket as the lowest-ranked division winner and the No. 4 seed.
Now, after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers to open Wild Card Weekend, what’s next for this squad? Let’s examine who Texans will face in the Divisional Round before determining what paths could lead them to host the AFC Championship Game.
Who Will the Houston Texans Play in the Divisional Round?
With the Baltimore Ravens (3 seed) defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers (6 seed) and the Texans (4 seed) defeating the Chargers (5 seed), the Texans will travel to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (1 seed).
We do not yet know what day or time the game will take place, which will be announced before Monday Night’s game between the Rams and Vikings is over.
Here is the most updated playoff bracket following the Bills-Broncos game.
Could the Texans Host the AFC Championship Game?
No, the Texans cannot host the AFC Championship Game.
Since the Ravens and Bills won, the Texans are the lowest remaining seed and cannot host the AFC Championship Game.
Houston needed Denver to win against Buffalo, and then they needed the Broncos to upset the reigning Super Bowl-champion Chiefs. And, of course, Houston would’ve needed to defeat the Ravens. PFN’s model gave this scenario just a 3.7% chance of happening.
But because things didn’t shake out their way, Houston has no path remaining.
What Were the Texans’ Playoff Scenarios?
After winning on Wild Card Weekend, Houston had a wide range of potential opponents in the Divisional Round. The Texans could have faced any of four teams, with only the Denver Broncos not being a possible outcome for them.
For all of the scenarios outlined in this article, the key is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. When each round of games is over, the lowest remaining seed is paired up to face the highest remaining seed, and the higher seed in every matchup hosts the game.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket: Divisional Round Schedule, Playoff Seeds, Matchups
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Texans’ most likely opponent was always the Chiefs. With the No. 2 seed Bills and No. 3 seed Ravens both favored big (and ultimately winning on Saturday), it was clear Houston would likely head to Arrowhead.
There was a 45.2% chance that the Texans played their Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The next most likely outcome based on PFN’s win probabilities was a 26.3% chance of playing in Baltimore, followed by a game in Buffalo at 18.0%.
For the Texans to head to Baltimore, they would have needed the Broncos to upset the Bills on the road. That would have sent the No. 7 seed Broncos to Kansas City, with Houston going to Baltimore for a rematch of its Christmas Day mauling by the Ravens.
The Texans had no chance of hosting a playoff game in the Divisional Round once the Ravens defeated the Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
