Terry McLaurin has caught at least 1 reception from six different quarterbacks during his first two NFL seasons. Despite this, he has developed into one of the most talented receivers in the league. So, with another QB headed to Washington, what is McLaurin’s ADP and fantasy football outlook for 2021?
Terry McLaurin’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Washington Football Team signed veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick during free agency. Fitzpatrick is a significant upgrade over other quarterbacks McLaurin has played with thus far in his career, like Alex Smith or Case Keenum. Fitzpatrick has finished as a QB1 in 47% of his active games since 2017.
McLaurin and Fitzpatrick had a chance to connect during Washington’s OTAs (organized team activities). Washington’s offense will be more multi-dimensional in 2021, and McLaurin expects to be the veteran quarterback’s No. 1 target.
Washington’s offense will be multi-faceted in 2021
Washington made some key offensive additions this offseason, including wide receivers Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Adam Humphries.
Samuel is coming off a career season and is now reunited with his former college teammate, McLaurin. The former Panthers’ receiver finished as a WR2 or better in 47% of his games in PPR formats last year. Alongside McLaurin, Samuel projects to open the season as Washington’s No. 2 receiver.
Additionally, head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner will lean more on the passing game. Washington ranked 25th last season in passing yards (220.8) and points scored per game (21). McLaurin was the only receiver on the team to exceed 1,000 or more receiving yards. Fitzpatrick’s arrival should lead to a higher completion percentage and more pass attempts of 20+ yards.
Running back J.D. McKissic (110) had the second-most targets behind McLaurin (134) last season. However, with Fitzpatrick under center and the addition of Samuel, this is unlikely to repeat itself .
Since 2017, Fitzpatrick has averaged 277 passing air yards per game. Air yards indicate how far a pass has traveled in the air before it is caught.
You may be thinking about the narrative surrounding running back Antonio Gibson heading into this season. Gibson should be used more as a receiver in Washington’s passing attack. Running backs coach Randy Jordan and the other offensive coaches are confident that he can maximize the additional targets.
As a reminder, Gibson accumulated 44 receptions for 834 yards and 10 touchdowns in two seasons with Memphis. He had more receptions than rushing attempts (33) in 19 collegiate games. Thus, Fitzpatrick has another playmaker who can be a receiving threat anywhere on the field.
When you look at Washington’s offensive line, it gets even better for Fitzpatrick and McLaurin.
Washington’s offensive line is solid
Washington will rely on three new starters on their offensive line in 2021. In fact, the left side of the offensive line has been completely redone. Last season, Washington’s offensive line was a pleasant surprise and a solid run and pass-blocking unit. They should have another solid unit and even better depth in 2021. First, let’s address some of the concerns you may have about McLaurin’s 2021 outlook.
The NFC East is changing
Washington’s offense will be more fast-paced than many expect. In fact, all of the offenses in the NFC East have upgraded this offseason. Even with a stout defense, Washington will want to score as many points as possible each game.
With Fitzpatrick projected for around 550 pass attempts in 2021, we have McLaurin in a position to see 140+ targets. So, how does that translate to his fantasy projection?
Fantasy projection
McLaurin has averaged 8 targets, 5 receptions, 70 receiving yards, 90 receiving air yards, and 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game in his 29 active games. In truth, he’s prospered without a viable quarterback under center.
McLaurin has finished as a WR2 or better in 45% of his career games. He could conclude the 2021 season with around 145 targets, 110 receptions, 1,300 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns, potentially finishing the year as a low-end WR1.
Terry McLaurin’s ADP in fantasy drafts
McLaurin is readily available in the middle of the third round in fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where McLaurin has an ADP of 29.08 as the WR10 overall. Likewise, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 30.4.
Should you draft Terry McLaurin at this ADP in 2021?
At his current ADP, McLaurin is a value. Moreover, he has the potential to outperform it and finish as a low-end WR1. The only other receiver with a similar ADP that I’d select over McLaurin is Allen Robinson.
Eric is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.