Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin is one of eight players with 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons, but he’s the only one of them to have a season over that stretch with fewer than six touchdown catches … and he’s done it in all three seasons!
McLaurin turns 28 in September and enters another season without much in the way of experience under center. With Sam Howell projected as the starter and Jacoby Brissett backing him up, what is McLaurin’s fantasy football outlook for 2023?
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Terry McLaurin’s Fantasy Outlook
In 2020, McLaurin posted an 87-1,118-4 stat line with Alex Smith/Dwayne Haskins splitting the quarterbacking duties, a 77-1,053-5 line with Taylor Heinicke assuming control under center in 2021, and a 77-1,191-5 line last year with Heinicke/Carson Wentz evenly dividing up the pass attempts.
In short, McLaurin’s basically been the same fantasy receiver with a revolving door at quarterback, something he’ll be asked to do again this season with Howell entering the season as the starter. Over that stretch, the majority of McLaurin’s games have seen him produce 7.5-15.6 half-PPR fantasy points. Furthermore, he has more games with under six fantasy points than he does games with 20+.
McLaurin figures to carry a similar range of outcomes into 2023. Washington is identical at the primary skill spots (Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel behind him in the WR hierarchy, with Logan Thomas filling at tight end).
The target share is likely to rank among the top receivers in the game once again, but the quality of targets is a major question mark with Howell. That said, McLaurin’s proven the ability to be fantasy viable in bad offenses before (Washington ranked 24th in points per game last season). So even if you aren’t looking for exposure to the Commanders, you’d be wise to keep an eye on how those drafting around you treat him.
Does McLaurin Have Room To Grow?
He does, but whether or not this offense will encourage that growth is another question.
McLaurin has seen his yards per route run increase in consecutive seasons, and he has seemingly corrected the drop problem he had as a rookie (2019: 7.5% drop rate, since: 2.1%). In 2022, McLaurin also recorded the highest red-zone catch rate of his career (72.7%), a skill that sometimes takes time to develop.
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But, as encouraging as his growth is, there is only so much fantasy potential until this franchise figures out the QB position. Yes, the red-zone catch rate is nice, but McLaurin saw just 11 red-zone targets in 17 games. Of course, the limited drops are what we want … but even his sticky hands have only been able to haul in 62.8% of passes over the past three seasons. You get the idea.
McLaurin could be unlocked by the right caller, and, who knows, maybe that will prove to be Howell. But my job is to present the most likely series of events for the season ahead, and it’s awfully difficult to project anything more than the status quo for the former Buckeye.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft McLaurin at His ADP?
You know what you’re getting, and there’s a level of comfort in that. McLaurin is currently coming off the board behind the “receivers with new quarterbacks” club in Christian Watson and Chris Godwin. Given his experience with underwhelming signal-callers, I have no problem with selecting McLaurin ahead of those two, but taking him ahead of his late fourth/early fifth-round ADP is a tough sell.
Just ahead of McLaurin are players with considerably higher ceilings (DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and Calvin Ridley being examples), options that have a better chance to provide elite return on investment.
Drafting McLaurin means you’re looking for upside elsewhere, so if he’s a draft day target for you, make sure to plan accordingly. I like putting him on a fantasy roster with a Chris Olave type of receiver or a Tony Pollard type of running backs — players that have an elite season within their range of outcomes that are complemented perfectly by a reliable option like McLaurin that simply doesn’t have access to the monster season.
