Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin and Christian Kirk of the Jacksonville Jaguars are both off to disappointing starts.
But for fantasy managers, which receiver has the better chance to break out of their slump in Week 3?
Here’s a look at the fantasy football outlook for both McLaurin and Kirk.
Should You Start Terry McLaurin or Christian Kirk This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that McLaurin is the player to start. His projected 11.3 points include four receptions and 57 receiving yards.
Primetime prep@TheTerry_25 | #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/AxNuNssdJT
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 19, 2024
That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Kirk (11.3 points, four receptions, 54 receiving yards).
My ranking of these two wide receivers aligns with the consensus. Although it is tight, I believe McLaurin will start to get more attention from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels as this season progresses, putting McLaurin in position to improve on his overall and fantasy numbers.
Terry McLaurin’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
It has not been the best start to a season for McLaurin, but there are some legitimate reasons to believe he will turn his season around. The biggest is the Commanders ‘ decision to throw Daniels into the fire from the beginning.
While that decision looks like it could work out for this team, McLaurin’s numbers have suffered, nonetheless. He still leads the team in targets (12) and receptions (eight), but many fantasy owners likely assumed these would be McLaurin’s production in one game, not two.
Daniels has obviously been told to play it safe when dropping back. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, 41% of Daniels pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage, the highest percentage in the NFL.
In addition, only 3.9% of Daniels’ attempts have been “deep throws” (20 or more air yards), which is tied for the lowest percentage in the NFL entering Week 3. While these numbers are working for the Commanders, they are not helping McLaurin’s cause.
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That will gradually improve, it stands to reason, as Daniels gets more comfortable under center. Indeed, last week saw McLaurin get twice as many targets (eight) as he had in Week 1 (four), and he finished with six receptions after recording only two catches in Week 1.
As this offense — specifically Daniels — gets more comfortable, I expect McLaurin to become the rookie’s favorite target. That could very well be in primetime on Monday Night Football.
Christian Kirk’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
It’s difficult to imagine a player having a more disappointing start to a season than Kirk. After the Jaguars went out in the offseason and acquired some depth at wide receiver with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., Kirk has been an overlooked player in each of their first two games.
Kirk, who is just two seasons removed from being targeted 133 times, has been targeted only seven times across two games. The results of those targets are two receptions for 29 yards and 4.9 fantasy points.
Last week may have been the low point for Kirk. Despite being on the field for 88% of the Jaguars’ offensive snaps in Week 2, Kirk finished with one reception for minus-1 yard.
But much like McLaurin, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Kirk’s struggles to continue. Late this week, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said that the offense needs to get Kirk more involved.
And, much like McLaurin, that could very well be on Monday night, when the Jaguars take on the Buffalo Bills.
However, at this stage, I’m more inclined to trust the Commanders’ offense than that of the Jaguars.