In the final round of group matches in the Jimmy Connors group at the 2025 ATP Finals, Taylor Fritz will face Alex de Minaur. Fritz entered Turin with a 52-21 record this season, having won two titles and finished runner-up once. He began his campaign in Turin with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Lorenzo Musetti. In his second match against Carlos Alcaraz, the American won the first set and battled the Spaniard closely but ultimately lost 7-6 (2), 5-7, 3-6.
Meanwhile, De Minaur has lost both of his matches in Turin so far. Against Alcaraz, the Australian played a tight first set, losing in a tiebreaker, before the Spaniard dominated the second set, winning 7-6 (5), 6-1. In his second match against Musetti, De Minaur took the match to a deciding set but fell 5-7, 6-3, 5-7.
Taylor Fritz vs Alex De Minaur Match Details
Date: Nov. 13, 2025
Tournament: ATP Finals 2025
Round: Group stage, round-robin
Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy
Category: ATP Finals
Surface: Indoor hardcourt
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Fritz vs De Minaur Head-to-Head
After 10 meetings, Fritz and De Minaur are tied 5-5. Their last meeting was at the Davis Cup Finals last year, where Fritz won 6-3, 6-4. Fritz also defeated the Australian at last year’s ATP Finals, winning 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Fritz vs De Minaur Prediction
In his previous match against Alcaraz, Fritz won 63%of service points and 34% of return points. However, he struggled in key moments, converting just one of nine break-point opportunities and giving up a crucial break of serve in the third set.
Against Musetti, De Minaur won 64% of service points and 33 percent of return points. While he won the same number of total points as his Italian opponent, De Minaur struggled on second-serve returns, winning just 26% compared with Musetti’s 41%.
Coming into Turin, Fritz had a 62.5% win rate on indoor hard courts, while De Minaur had an 80% win rate. However, the Australian has struggled against top-10 opponents this year, winning only one of nine matches, whereas Fritz had a 3-4 record against top-10 players before Turin.
The first set will be critical, as both Fritz and De Minaur have near-identical success rates after winning the opening set this year — 89% for Fritz and 90% for De Minaur. On an indoor hardcourt, the American is the slight favorite.
Pick: Fritz to win in three sets
