One of the first-round matches at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open will feature a former World No. 3, Stefanos Tsitsipas, taking on a former Wimbledon semifinalist, Denis Shapovalov. Tsitsipas has a 9-5 win-loss record in 2026, with a quarterfinal finish at the Qatar Open as his best result, whereas Shapovalov has a 4-4 win-loss record, with a semifinal finish at the Dallas Open as his best result so far.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov Match Details
Date: March 4, 2026
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2026
Round: First Round (Round of 128)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, USA
Surface: Outdoor hard
Category:Â ATP Masters 1000
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, TSN, TVA
Tsitsipas vs Shapovalov Head-to-Head
After six meetings, it is Shapovalov who has a 4-2 lead in the head-to-head against Tsitsipas. The last time they played each other was at the 2024 Miami Open, where the Canadian won 6-2, 6-4.
Tsitispas had a decent start to the 2026 season, as he won all three of his singles matches at the United Cup, including a victory over Taylor Fritz. However, what followed was a first-round exit in Adelaide and second-round exits at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam.
He did have a small run at the Qatar Open, winning his matches against Moez Echargui and Daniil Medvedev, but lost to Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. His last event was the Dubai Tennis Championships, where the Greek was the defending champion but lost to Ugo Humbert in the first round, dropping him out of the Top 40 on the ATP Rankings.
Shapovalov, meanwhile, did not start the season well as he had a first-round exit in Brisbane, followed by a second-round exit at the Australian Open. He entered the Dallas Open as the defending champion and reached the semifinal with wins over the likes of Rafael Jodar, Aleksandar Kovacevic, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but lost to Ben Shelton in the final four. He last played in Dubai, where he lost to Pablo Carreño Busta in the first round.
Tsitsipas vs Shapovalov Prediction
Tsitsipas had won 92% of his service games and only 15% of the return games in the 2026 season so far. The Greek has been solid behind his first serve, winning 80% of the points. He has saved 65% of the 34 break points he has faced, while converting 26% of the 84 break point opportunities he has had.
On the other hand, Shapovalov has won 82% of his service games and 19% of the return games in the season so far. The Canadian has been effective in second-serve situations, winning 50% of points on returns. He has saved 65% of the 49 break points he has faced, while converting 33% of 55 break point opportunities.
The match will be between two contrasting styles, as Tsitsipas has been reliable on serve, whereas Shapovalov has been effective on return. Neither of them has an exemplary record at Indian Wells: Tsitsipas had one quarterfinal appearance in 2021, and Shapovalov has never reached the fourth round. However, given the head-to-head advantage and the fact that Shapovalov has never lost to the Greek on a hard court, the Canadian is the slight favorite in the upcoming match.
Pick- Shapovalov to win in three sets
