One of the fourth round matchups at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open will be a blockbuster, as 14th seed and defending champion Jack Draper will go up against third-seeded and five-time champion Novak Djokovic. Djokovic got a bye in the first round, after which he opened his campaign with a 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 win over Kamill Majchrzak in the second round, followed by a 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 win over Aleksandar Kovacevic in the third round.
After getting an opening round bye, Draper began his title defense with a hard-fought 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 win over veteran Roberto Bautista Agut in the second round, followed by an impressive 6-1, 7-5 win over the 17th-seeded Francisco Cerundolo in the third round.
Novak Djokovic vs. Jack Draper: Match Details for Indian Wells Fourth Round
Date: March 11, 2026
Tournament:Â BNP Paribas Open 2026
Round:Â Fourth round (Round of 16)
Venue:Â Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, USA
Surface:Â Outdoor hard
Category:Â ATP Masters 1000
Live Telecast:Â Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, TSN, TVA
Djokovic vs. Draper Head-to-Head
The head-to-head is 1-0 in favor of Djokovic, with the Serb winning his only match against Draper 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 at the 2021 Wimbledon.
This is only the second event of 2026 for Djokovic, who had an excellent runner-up finish at the Australian Open. He started well in Melbourne, getting victories over the likes of Pedro Martinez, Francesco Maestrelli, and Botic Van De Zandschulp in the earlier rounds.
He got a slice of luck against Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals, as the Italian had to withdraw mid-match, despite winning the first two sets. However, Djokovic turned the clock back, securing a vintage five-set win over Jannik Sinner in the semifinal, before eventually falling short against Carlos Alcaraz in the final in a close four-set battle.
Draper, on the other hand, is making his comeback from injury and has played only a handful of matches this year so far. He secured a Davis Cup victory against Viktor Durasovic of Norway before making his Tour-level comeback at the Qatar Open. The Brit had a decent start, winning against Quentin Halys in the first round, but lost to Arthur Rinderknech in the next round.
Djokovic vs. Draper Prediction
Djokovic has won 77 percent of his first serve points and 53 percent of his second serve points in Indian Wells so far. The Serb has been shaky on serve, getting broken four times in two matches so far. He has done reasonably well in break point conversions, converting 7 of the 22 break point opportunities he has had in two matches.
Draper, on the other hand, has been more potent behind his first serve, winning 84 percent of points, while his second-serve win rate is 51 percent. The Brit has been broken thrice in two matches, but he has converted 9 of 21 break-point opportunities, giving him the advantage.
Despite winning five titles, Djokovic has not made it past the fourth round in Indian Wells since 2016. On the other hand, Draper’s fitness is still in question, and it remains to be seen if the Brit is physically fit enough to put together a series of wins to go deep at a Masters 1000 event.
The PFSN Simulator has given the Serb a 75 percent win probability, keeping past record and head-to-head in mind. However, given the current form, one feels that the match will be a close three-set battle, with Djokovic having the slight edge.
Pick: Djokovic to win in three sets
