The 2026 Miami Open men’s draw was released, clarifying the pathways players must take to win the title. With Novak Djokovic having withdrawn from the event, top seeds Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are the firm favorites. While Alcaraz will look to move past his loss at Indian Wells with a deep run, Sinner will aim to complete the Sunshine Double after winning his maiden Indian Wells title.
Jannik Sinner Is Set For a Potential Matchup Against Ben Shelton In Miami
Having won Indian Wells, Sinner will attempt to complete the Sunshine Double and enter the clay season with momentum. The Italian will begin his campaign with a potential opening-round match against Damir Džumhur. Sinner has not faced the Bosnian on Tour, but the second seed is expected to advance.
If he clears the opening hurdle, Sinner’s likely opponents in the next two rounds would be 30th-seeded Corentin Moutet and 15th-seeded Andrey Rublev. Sinner has won his only match against Moutet and seven of 10 against Rublev, giving him the advantage in those potential matchups.
Potential quarterfinal opponents for Sinner include seventh-seeded Félix Auger-Aliassime or 12th-seeded Jakub Menšík. Sinner has won four of six matches against Auger-Aliassime, but Menšík poses a genuine threat as the defending champion, having beaten Sinner at the Qatar Open last month.
This could set up a semifinal clash between Sinner and Ben Shelton. However, Shelton faces a difficult draw, with potential meetings against Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. Even if he reaches the semifinal, Sinner holds a dominant record against him, winning nine of 10 matches, with Shelton yet to win a set in their last nine meetings.
Given the draw and current form, Menšík may present the biggest challenge for Sinner, but the Italian is favored to advance after his Indian Wells triumph.
Carlos Alcaraz Faces A Potentially Tricky Matchup In His Opening Round In Miami
After receiving a first-round bye, Alcaraz will potentially open against either Fábián Marozsán or João Fonseca. Alcaraz has won two of three matches against Marozsán but has yet to face Fonseca. Should he meet the Brazilian, it would be a highly anticipated matchup following Fonseca’s strong showing against Sinner at Indian Wells.
If Alcaraz advances, he is likely to face 32nd-seeded Sebastian Korda in the third round. Alcaraz has won four of five matches against Korda. His potential fourth-round opponent could be 17th-seeded Karen Khachanov, against whom he is undefeated in six matches.
Taylor Fritz or Casper Ruud will likely await in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz has favorable records against both, winning five of six against Fritz and six of seven against Ruud, including a victory over Ruud at Indian Wells last week. If seedings hold, Lorenzo Musetti or Alex de Minaur could be semifinal opponents. Alcaraz has a 7-1 record against Musetti and is undefeated in six matches against de Minaur, including a win at this year’s Australian Open.
This sets up a potential final between Alcaraz and Sinner, their first meeting of 2026. Given the draw, if Alcaraz navigates the opening round, he has a strong probability of reaching the final, as he holds dominant head-to-head records against the seeded players in his path.
