Madison Keys, Naomi Osaka, Jessica Pegula: Analyzing Australian Open 2R Threat

Three of the biggest WTA stars in the draw, defending champion Madison Keys, two-time champion Naomi Osaka, and sixth-seeded Jessica Pegula, all made winning starts at the 2026 Australian Open.

Let’s analyse the respective second-round matches for the three players mentioned above.

Madison Keys Continues Her Title Defense As She Takes On Ashlyn Krueger In The Second Round

Defending champion Madison Keys overcame a tricky challenge against Oleksandra Oliynykova in the first round, with the American winning 7-6 (6), 6-1. Her next challenger in her title defense will be her fellow countrywoman, Ashlyn Krueger, who began her campaign with a 6-3, 6-3 win against Sára Bejlek in the first round.

This will be the first meeting between the two players, with Keys having a 78 percent win probability as stipulated by the PFSN Simulator. In her previous round, Keys won 72 percent of the first-serve points. The American made 30 unforced errors in the first set, but as the match progressed, she showed more composure, making only 7 unforced errors in the second set. On the other hand, Krueger did get broken twice in her previous match, but was able to break her opponent’s serve five times.

Keys will go for her shots as the American looks to dominate with her strong baseline game. For Krueger to have a chance, she needs to bring some variety to her serve and come to the net, especially during the second serve situations in the return games. However, the defending champion should get it done and move to the next round.

Pick- Keys to win in straight sets

Naomi Osaka Will Face Sorana Cîrstea In The Second Round

Two-time champion Naomi Osaka had a tough first-round match at the 2026 Australian Open, as the former World No. 1 had to fight her way through to win 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 against Antonia Ružić. She will now face Sorana Cîrstea, who began her campaign in Melbourne with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 against Eva Lys in the first round.

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Cîrstea has a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head against Osaka, having won the only match at Wimbledon qualifying way back in 2015. However, in the upcoming match, the PFSN Simulator has assigned a 56 percent win probability to the Japanese player.

In her previous match, Osaka won over 70 percent of the first serve points, but made 44 unforced errors, which led to her being broken four times. On the other hand, Cîrstea also got broken four times in her previous match, but broke Lys’s serve five times, to get the win.

Osaka needs to reduce the number of unforced errors and needs to be patient on the longer rallies, as she was often pulling the trigger on her big shots too early in the previous match. Cîrstea will have a chance if she comes to the net and uses slices and dropshots during rallies. Overall, the former champion should come through the match and reach the next round.

Pick- Osaka to win in straight sets

Jessica Pegula Will Face McCartney Kessler In the Second Round

Sixth-seeded Jessica Pegula made an almost perfect start to her Australian Open campaign as she won 6-2, 6-1 against Anastasia Zakharova in the first round. She will now go up against McCartney Kessler, who started her campaign in Melbourne with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Emilian Arango in the first round.

Pegula has a 1-0 head-to-head record against Kessler, having won against her at the ATX Open last year. In her opening round in Melbourne, Pegula gave a complete performance, winning 73 percent of the service points and 60 percent of the return points, while hitting 20 winners and making 14 unforced errors.

Kessler, on the other hand, did get her serve broken twice in the previous match, but broke her opponent’s serve five times during return games.

Pegula is the firm favorite going into the match, as she is one of the top ten seeds and is a multiple-time quarterfinalist at Melbourne. The PFSN Simulator gives the sixth seed a win probability of 72 percent.

Pick- Pegula to win in straight sets