One of the second-round fixtures at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open will be a tantalizing matchup as 16th-seeded Karen Khachanov faces Brazilian sensation João Fonseca. Khachanov received a first-round bye due to his seeding, while Fonseca opened with a 7-6 (2), 6-4 win over Raphael Collignon.
Karen Khachanov vs João Fonseca Match Details
Date: March 6, 2026
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2026
Round: Second round (Round of 64)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, USA
Surface: Outdoor hard
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, TSN, TVA
Khachanov vs Fonseca Head-to-Head
The head-to-head is 1-0 in favor of Khachanov, as the Russian won their only contest 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 at the Paris Masters last year.
Khachanov has had a middling season so far in 2026, with a 6-5 record. He has suffered three second-round exits in Hong Kong, Rotterdam, and Dubai, losing to Michael Mmoh, Jaume Munar, and Jenson Brooksby, all of whom are lower-ranked. His best result came at the Qatar Open, where he reached the quarterfinals before falling 7-6 (3), 4-6, 3-6 to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Fonseca, meanwhile, has struggled in the early part of the season while returning from injury. He had opening-round exits at the Australian Open and Argentina Open, losing to Elliot Spizzirri and Alejandro Tabilo. He did earn a win at his home event in Rio against Thiago Monteiro but lost to Ignacio Buse in the second round.
Khachanov vs Fonseca Prediction
Khachanov has won 90% of his service games and 16% of his return games in the season so far. He has saved 74% of the 66 break points he has faced on his serve so far, while converting 37% of the 73 break point opportunities he has generated in the return games.
Fonseca is behind Khachanov in most serve and return metrics. The Brazilian has won 69% of his service games and 12% of his return games. He has saved 62% of the 13 break points he has faced and converted 22% of his nine break-point opportunities.
Fonseca has a high ceiling, but his injury concerns have kept him from hitting top form this season. His serve has been inconsistent, which could prove decisive against Khachanov, a strong server on hard courts. PFSN’s Tennis Simulator reflects Fonseca’s potential, giving him a 57% win probability. However, Khachanov’s current form gives him a slight edge in what could be a close three-set battle.
Pick: Khachanov to win in three sets
