2023 runner-up Jessica Pegula will face World No. 8 Jasmine Paolini in her final round-robin match of this week’s WTA Finals on Thursday, Nov. 6.
With a 4-6 win-loss record at the year-end championships, Pegula got her campaign in Riyadh off to a flying start last Saturday. The 31-year-old won 70% of her first-serve points and hit 23 winners to beat defending champion Coco Gauff 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-2. She then looked on course for a second consecutive victory on Tuesday as she led World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka by a break in the third set. However, the Belarusian eventually came back to win 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 in just over two hours.
Paolini, meanwhile, has struggled in the tournament, having yet to win a set in two matches. The 29-year-old first suffered a 3-6, 1-6 defeat at the hands of Sabalenka on Saturday, before losing her second round-robin match by a similar scoreline of 3-6, 2-6 to a resurgent Gauff later. She now holds a 1-4 win-loss record at the year-end championships.
Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini Match Details
- Date: Nov. 6, 2025
- Tournament: WTA Finals 2025
- Round: Round-robin
- Venue: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Category: WTA Finals
- Surface: Indoor hardcourt
- Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Pegula vs Paolini Head-to-Head
Jessica Pegula leads Jasmine Paolini 3-1 in their WTA Tour meetings. While the American lost their most recent encounter in the USA vs. Italy title match at this year’s BJK Cup Finals, 4-6, 2-6, she has won two of their three career tour-level hardcourt clashes.
Pegula vs Paolini Prediction
Jessica Pegula delivered a strong performance in her second match at the 2025 WTA Finals, hitting 23 winners and saving 12 of the 16 break points she faced on her own serve. Although her all-around display wasn’t enough in the end, the World No. 5 enters her fifth career meeting against Jasmine Paolini as the clear favorite. The 31-year-old doesn’t lead the tour in most metrics, but her groundstrokes are the most resilient during crucial points, allowing her to stay competitive in close matches.
Paolini, on her part, breaks serve on a tour average of 39.3% and has converted 48.6% of her break points this year. Her average, however, is skewed when facing top players like Pegula, meaning she cannot rely as heavily on her return game. At 5-foot-4, she also earns fewer free points on serve, forcing her to construct points from the baseline.
The keys for both players will be to vary shot placement and avoid unforced errors. Pegula, a seasoned WTA Tour veteran, will benefit from mixing depth and pace to prevent Paolini from redirecting the ball. If Pegula wins roughly 65%-70% of her first-serve points, she is likely to win this match and secure a spot in the semifinals in Riyadh.
Prediction: Jessica Pegula to win in three sets.