After paving the way through a challenging draw, Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz are set to clash in the Cincinnati Open quarterfinals. Alcaraz, the tournament’s second seed, took down Luca Nardi with a confident 6–1, 6–4 win. Rublev, on the other hand, advanced after a three-set victory over Francisco Comesana.
Alcaraz’s 2025 campaign has been commendable. He claimed titles at Monte-Carlo and Rome, secured a historic comeback in the French Open final by staving off championship points to complete one of the most epic finals in history. The Spaniard also reached the Wimbledon final but eventually lost to Sinner.
His Cincinnati run marks his fourth straight year earning 50+ match wins, a feat last achieved by Novak Djokovic from 2013 to 2016.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev Match Details
- Date: August 14, 2025
- Tournament: Cincinnati Open
- Round: Quarterfinals
- Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio
- Category: Masters 1000
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports
Rublev vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head
Carlos Alcaraz holds a 3–1 advantage over Andrey Rublev in their ATP-level encounters. Their most recent meeting took place in the fourth round of Wimbledon 2025 in London on July 6, 2025.
“So quick he could answer a missed call” 😎@carlosalcaraz #CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/p2sS9brahJ
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 14, 2025
Alcaraz secured the win with a final scoreline of 6–7(5), 6–3, 6–4, 6–4 in a match that lasted approximately 2 hours and 43 minutes.
Rublev vs Alcaraz Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz enters this match with notable credentials on hard courts this season. His outdoor hard-court record stands at 13 wins and 4 losses, a win rate of approximately 76%, with an average of 6.47 aces per match and just 3.24 double faults per match. Andrey Rublev, on the other hand, has a less consistent hard-court form. His season win-loss on the surface is 13–8, for a win rate around 58%. The Russian remains a formidable opponent on hard surfaces, primarily due to his aggressive baseline game.
Alcaraz deploys a dynamic, aggressive all-court style backed by an explosive forehand and first serve, often reaching 115–120 mph, and at times peaking near 135 mph. His serve, while sometimes lacking precision, is complemented by massive return ability, allowing him to dominate rallies. Rublev, as an offensive baseliner, also excels with a heavy forehand, but his two-handed backhand can be inconsistent.
Rublev’s serve performance this season saw a first-serve percentage of 60.1%, averaging 7.17 aces per match, with a double-fault rate of 2.54 per match. These figures fall behind Alcaraz’s efficiency. Though his ace average (6.47 outdoor) is slightly lower, his serve is more consistent under pressure, supplemented by a higher first-serve accuracy (64%) and strong point-winning rates.
Considering Alcaraz’s superior hard-court win rate, sharper serve efficiency, elite return game, and aggressive style that maximizes control, he is strongly favored to win in straight sets.
