The clay-court season is here, and the Monte-Carlo Masters will see Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner renew their rivalry. The battle for the No. 1 ranking is sure to add another captivating twist as the two tennis superstars begin their preparations for the French Open.
While Alcaraz and Sinner cannot meet till the final, they both face a tricky path to the championship match with 56 of the ATP Tour’s best players competing in Monte-Carlo. Here’s a closer look at their projected draw and an analysis of who might have the tougher road ahead.
Carlos Alcaraz’s Road to Defending Monte-Carlo Masters Crown
Alcaraz enjoyed an excellent start to the season by winning the Australian Open. But he suffered a shock defeat in the BNP Paribas Open semifinals and was then stunned by Sebastian Korda in Miami. He will begin his Monte-Carlo Masters campaign in the second round.
The reigning Monte-Carlo Masters champion could face Sebastian Baez or Stan Wawrinka in his Monte-Carlo opener. A third-round clash against Frances Tiafoe or Grigor Dimitrov could then await Alcaraz. The Spaniard will be confident in his ability to defeat both players, though Tiafoe has beaten him on clay once (in 2021).
In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz could face the beaten Miami Open finalist, Jiří Lehečka, or the eighth seed, Alexander Bublik. Alex de Minaur or Lorenzo Musetti could be his possible semifinal opponents. If he makes it to the Monte-Carlo final, Alcaraz could face arch-rival Sinner.
Lehečka will be full of confidence after a strong run in Miami and could cause a few problems against Alcaraz (head-to-head 3-1 in the Spaniard’s favor). Alcaraz has never lost to de Minaur and also holds a 7-1 head-to-head record against Musetti. While the 22-year-old has struggled against Cameron Norrie and Fabian Marozsan on clay, they’ll need to reach the semifinal to have a chance against the reigning champion.
After a disappointing Sunshine Swing by his lofty standards, Alcaraz will hope to turn the tide on clay. He will have his sights set on a three-peat at the French Open, and a strong run in Monte-Carlo will be key to his hopes.
Jannik Sinner’s Path to Monte-Carlo Masters Final
Sinner goes into the Monte-Carlo Masters having won 34 consecutive sets at Masters 1000 events. Clay is not his favorite surface, and he has won only one title on it, but he will be full of confidence after winning back-to-back titles at Indian Wells and the Miami Open without dropping a set.
Like Alcaraz, Sinner has also received a first-round bye in Monte-Carlo. The Italian will begin his campaign against Ugo Humbert or 17-year-old Moïse Kouamé.
Sinner could face Francisco Cerúndolo or Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round, followed by a possible quarterfinal clash against Félix Auger-Aliassime or Casper Ruud. He is on a four-match winning streak against the Canadian and has never lost to the Norwegian.
If the 24-year-old makes the Monte-Carlo Masters semifinals, he could face Alexander Zverev for the third time in less than a month. Indian Wells finalist Daniil Medvedev could be a potential opponent for Sinner in the final four. Former champion Andrey Rublev is another possible semifinal opponent.
Sinner will fancy his chances against all three players, having beaten Zverev in each of their last seven meetings. The four-time Grand Slam champion has also beaten Medvedev in their last four meetings.
MORE: Monte-Carlo Masters Hit by Mass Withdrawals and Snubs As Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton Missing
Based on the draw and the overall form of the two players going into the tournament, Alcaraz appears to have the tougher draw. But on paper, Sinner will have to overcome the more household names to triumph in Monaco.
With the players moving straight to clay after a busy hard-court season, the Monte-Carlo Masters could well come down to which player adapts best to the conditions.
As the reigning champion in Monte-Carlo, Alcaraz will be defending 1,000 ranking points. Sinner is currently 1,190 points behind the Spaniard and does not have any ranking points to defend. So if he betters Alcaraz’s results over the next week, he could regain the world No. 1 ranking.
