Top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz will look to keep his unbeaten record for the season intact as he faces 11th-seeded Daniil Medvedev in the semifinal of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open. The Spaniard has already won the Australian Open and the Qatar Open and is unbeaten across 16 matches and will be looking for a third title in the Californian desert. Medvedev, on the other hand, has won 17 of the 20 matches this year, winning titles in Brisbane and Dubai.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Match Details
Date: March 14, 2026
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2026
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, USA
Surface: Outdoor hard
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, TSN, TVA
Alcaraz vs Medvedev Head-to-Head
After eight meetings, Alcaraz has a 6-2 head-to-head record against Medvedev, with the Spaniard winning the last match 7-5, 6-3 at the 2024 China Open. The two of them contested two finals at Indian Wells in 2023 and 2024, both won by Alcaraz in straight sets.
Alcaraz started with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Grigor Dimitrov at Indian Wells, followed by a tricky 6-7 (6), 6-3, 6-4 against the 26th-seeded Arthur Rinderknech in the third round. The top seed faced off against 13th-seeded Casper Ruud, registering a routine 6-1, 7-6 (2) win against the Norwegian, after which he won 6-3, 6-4 against the 27th-seeded and former champion, Cameron Norrie, in the quarterfinals.
Medvedev has been in pristine form at Indian Wells this year, starting with a 6-4, 6-2 win against Alejandro Tabilo in the second round, followed by a 6-4, 6-0 rout of Sebastián Báez in the third round. The two-time runner-up beat Alex Michelsen 6-2, 6-4 in the fourth round, then got his most impressive win, a 6-1, 7-5 victory over 14th-seeded defending champion Jack Draper in the quarterfinals.
Alcaraz vs Medvedev Prediction
Alcaraz won 65 percent of the service points and 47 percent of the return points against Norrie. The Spaniard looked a bit vulnerable on serve, as he got broken twice in the match, but he broke his opponent’s serve four times, taking the initiative in the match. He hit 27 winners in two sets but also made 26 unforced errors.
Medvedev was dominant on serve against Draper, winning 81 percent of his first serve points. He was able to attack the Brit’s second serve effectively, winning 48 percent of the points. He faced only one break point in the match, while breaking his opponent’s serve three times in the match.
Medvedev has won only one set in his last four meetings against Alcaraz, as he has struggled to get past the Spaniard’s power and creativity. Plus, the top seed has a phenomenal record at Indian Wells, making him the favorite to win the upcoming match, as reflected by the PFSN Simulator, which gives me an 82% win probability against the Spaniard.
Pick– Alcaraz to win in straight sets.
