Top seed and defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will continue her pursuit of a second straight Cincinnati Open crown when she takes on ninth seed Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals. The Belarusian began her campaign in the second round, defeating former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondroušová, then former US Open champion Emma Raducanu, before overcoming Jessica Bouzas to secure her spot in the last eight.
Meanwhile, Rybakina has enjoyed an impressive North American swing and continued on that by advancing to the Cincinnati quarterfinals with wins over Renata Zarazúa, Elise Mertens, and sixth seed Madison Keys.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Match Details
- Date: August 14, 2025
- Tournament: Cincinnati Open
- Round: Quarterfinals
- Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio
- Category: Masters 1000
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Head-to-Head
Sabalenka and Rybakina have built a fierce rivalry on tour, having faced each other on 11 occasions. The Belarusian holds a commanding 7-4 lead in the overall matches won.
Sabalenka won their most recent battle at the Berlin Tennis Open during this season’s grass-court swing.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Prediction
The World No. 1 has enjoyed a season highlighted by several standout performances and deep runs. She opened with a title at the Brisbane International, added trophies in Miami and Madrid, and finished runner-up at the Australian Open, BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, and the French Open. Her grass-court campaign was also strong, capped by a semifinal appearance at Wimbledon.
Meanwhile, Rybakina has also put together an impressive season, highlighted by semifinal finishes in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Washington, D.C., and Montreal, along with a triumph in Strasbourg. With two semifinal finishes so far in North America, the Kazakh is expected to give Sabalenka a tough time in their upcoming encounter.
While both players lean heavily on their serves, Sabalenka trails with 76.2% of service games won compared to Rybakina’s 81.3%. However, the Belarusian makes up for it with her return game, winning 41.7% of return games against Rybakina’s 32.8%.
It is also worth noting that Sabalenka is among the most dominant players on hard courts at present, backed by three Grand Slam titles on the surface and a win rate of nearly 74%. Rybakina, by comparison, holds a 67.27% win rate.
Given Rybakina’s recent form in North America, she is likely to pose a stern challenge for the Belarusian. However, with the overall record, higher seeding, and head-to-head edge, Sabalenka is favored to advance to the semifinals.
Pick: Sabalenka in three sets.
