World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face defending champion Coco Gauff in her last round-robin stage match of the 2025 WTA Finals later on Thursday, Nov. 6.
Sabalenka has been in sublime form in Riyadh this week and is looking to top her group. Having begun her campaign with a 6-3, 6-1 drubbing of world No. 8 Jasmine Paolini last Saturday, the Belarusian put together a resilient campaign against Jessica Pegula, who had defeated her at the Wuhan Open last month. The 27-year-old reversed a break deficit in the deciding set of her second round-robin match on Tuesday, coming through 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 to improve to an overall 10-8 win/loss record at the year-end championships.
Gauff hasn’t had as good a campaign as Sabalenka since she dropped her first round-robin match 3-6, 7-6(4), 2-6 to fellow American Pegula on Saturday. The world No. 3 kept the unforced errors in check and put together a much more stable performance against Paolini on Tuesday. The 21-year-old won 70% (35/50) of her first and second-serve points to dominate the Italian 6-3, 6-2. She will have to beat the 2022 WTA Finals runner-up on Thursday to keep her semifinal qualification chances alive.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Match Details
- Date: Nov. 6, 2025
- Tournament: WTA Finals 2025
- Round: Round-robin
- Venue: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Category: WTA Finals
- Surface: Indoor Hardcourt
- Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Sabalenka vs Gauff Head-to-Head
Coco Gauff leads Aryna Sabalenka by very thin margins in their head-to-head records on the WTA Tour, and has also won five of their nine hardcourt clashes, which include marquee matches at Majors and 1000-level events. Gauff defeated her older rival 7-6(4), 6-3 en route to her title victory at last year’s WTA Finals. She also won their French Open title match 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4, bringing their head-to-head to 6-5 in her favor.
Sabalenka vs Gauff Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka only won 63.8% (30/47) of her first-serve points in her win over Jessica Pegula. The Belarusian also wasted 12 of the 16 break-point opportunities that she had created, which is concerning for the rest of her WTA Finals campaign. However, the four-time Major winner has still been a force from the baseline if her 28 winners from her last victory in Riyadh are anything to go by.
Coco Gauff, meanwhile, has been a bit more erratic in rallies. The 2024 champion hasn’t been able to connect with the ball well enough, leading to uncharacteristic errors on important points. The 21-year-old will have to be wary of her shot selection against Sabalenka, who can blow her away when on song. In their past matches, though, the American has benefitted from her concise shotmaking, eliciting unforced errors from her Belarusian opponent.
Sabalenka will likely be more cautious while unloading on the ball this time around, as she would definitely like to go 3-0 in her group. The Belarusian’s performance in her last round-robin stage match of the year-end championships will also shape whether she will secure her first-ever WTA Finals title at the end of the week.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets