As the tournament advances to the third round, all eyes turn to a riveting rematch in Arthur Ashe Stadium. The defending champion and current World No. 1, Aryna Sabalenka, squares off against Canada’s Leylah Fernandez, the 2021 US Open finalist.
On Wednesday, Sabalenka secured a spot in the third round with a hard-fought victory over Polina Kudermetova (7-6 (4), 6-2). Meanwhile, Fernandez rebounded impressively from a one-set deficit to overcome Elsa Jacquemot 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 and earn her spot in the third round.
Fernandez is building momentum at just 22 years of age. After reaching the third round at the Australian Open and fighting through some close matches, she captured her first WTA 500 title at the Mubadala Citi DC Open, her first since 2023. The campaign saw her overcome notable challenges with a semifinal win over Elena Rybakina and a comfortable final against Anna Kalinskaya.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Match Details
- Date: Aug. 29, 2025
- Tournament:Â US Open
- Round: Third Round
- Venue:Â USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing Meadows, Queens, New York City
- Category:Â Grand Slam
- Surface:Â Outdoor hard
- Live telecast:Â ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV and Sling TV
Sabalenka vs. Fernandez Head-to-Head
To date, Sabalenka and Fernandez have met just once on the professional tour. Fernandez leads the head-to-head 1-0, having upset Sabalenka in a three-set thriller at the US Open semifinals on Sept. 9, 2021, winning 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4. That hard-court match lasted approximately 2 hours and 21 minutes.
Sabalenka vs. Fernandez Prediction
Sabalenka has showcased exceptional form on hard courts this season, boasting a hard-court win–loss record of 28-5 in 2025. Her aggressive baseline game and potent serve have translated into consistent results in high-stakes tournaments. Fernandez, meanwhile, enters with a hard-court record of 18-11.
Sabalenka relies on her powerful groundstrokes to dominate rivals, particularly her forehand and big serves. She averages 214 kmph on first serves and wins 68%, allowing her to control rallies and apply constant pressure. Fernandez counters with rapid movement and variety, often redirecting pace and deploying angles. She currently has a 66% first serve win rate.
Aryna Sabalenka surges to the finish line! pic.twitter.com/KVcue7wFNP
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 28, 2025
The serve battle likely tips in Sabalenka’s favour. She fired 217 aces with 122 double faults committed, while Fernandez hit 98 aces in 2025. Fernandez excels at neutralising aggressive servers as a returner, winning 41.4 % of return points, but Sabalenka typically wins 76.6% of service games, making her hard to break.
Considering the context of power, consistency, and serve advantage, the prediction leans toward Sabalenka, particularly if she maintains her serve numbers and returns at her usual intensity.
Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets
