World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will open her campaign at the 2025 WTA Finals against eighth-ranked Jasmine Paolini on Sunday, Nov. 2. With an impressive win/loss record of 59-11 and four year-to-date titles in her bag, Sabalenka has by far been the most in-form player on the WTA Tour in 2025. The Belarusian is looking to cap off her season in fine fashion by winning the WTA Finals, which has eluded her.
Paolini, meanwhile, has enjoyed a consistent run on the pro women’s tennis circuit over the last two months, winning 15 of her last 20 matches dating back to her runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Open to Iga Świątek. The Italian qualified for her second WTA Finals appearance after recording back-to-back semifinal results in Wuhan and Ningbo.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Match Details
Date: Nov. 2, 2025
Tournament: WTA Finals 2025
Round: Round-robin
Venue: King Saud University Indoor Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Category: WTA Finals
Surface: Indoor Hardcourt
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Sabalenka vs Paolini Head-to-Head
Sabalenka leads Paolini by a margin of 5-2 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. The Belarusian has defeated the Italian in four of their five hardcourt clashes, which includes her 6-3, 7-5 victory in the round-robin stage of the WTA Finals last year.
Sabalenka vs Paolini Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka has won the second-highest percentage of service games among the top 10 WTA players this year, underlining her dominance when she is the aggressor on court. Moreover, the four-time Major winner’s game is well-suited to the medium-paced hardcourts at the King Saud Arena, meaning she will be happy to unload on her groundstrokes from the baseline. Provided she can keep uncharacteristic errors low, a potential semifinal qualification at the WTA Finals seems like a likely prospect for the Belarusian.
Jasmine Paolini also doesn’t shy from hitting hard despite her relatively diminutive size. However, at 5’4, she still lacks the towering presence of Sabalenka, who is 5’11 and can fire down aces at a whim. During their last encounter in Riyadh, the world No. 1 won a respectable 72% of her first-serve points against the 29-year-old despite being broken twice. For what it’s worth, Paolini is a gutsy returner even though she struggles to rise to the occasion on crucial points.
However, the world No. 8 will have to take every chance that comes her way to douse Sabalenka’s challenge at this year’s WTA Finals. The Belarusian has won six of the 11 major tournaments held on hardcourts (Australian Open, Qatar Open, Miami Open, Cincinnati Open, US Open, and Wuhan Open). She will be more than eager to add the year-end championships to her collection.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.