Ahead of the NFL legal tampering period, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-signed QB Baker Mayfield on a three-year deal worth $100 million. It had long been expected that Mayfield could end up back with Tampa Bay, but with time running out before he could begin negotiations with other teams, an official deal was struck between the two sides.
Does Mayfield’s return to Tampa Bay improve the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds or did we see little change in terms of how the sportsbooks view their chances of raising the Lombardi Trophy?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Super Bowl Odds
There is a fairly wide range in the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds following the news of Mayfield re-signing. At DraftKings, Caesars, and BetRivers you find their odds as long as +7000, while at FanDuel, the Buccaneers Super Bowl odds sit at +5500. Ultimately, those odds are not much different than they were in the past month or so, having been in that +5000 to +7500 range for most sportsbooks.
As we said above, for the most part, it was pretty much expected that Mayfield would be back in Tampa Bay. Perhaps the larger unknown was WR Mike Evans, who also re-signed around a week ago. While receivers do not often move the odds much for a team, the combination of Mayfield and Evans returning to cement the same offensive core is reasonably important news for Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers passing offense was an above-average unit last year. They ranked inside the top 10 in both touchdowns and interceptions, while also ranking 14th in net yards per attempt. The offense as a whole was a below-average group, but in their second year with Mayfield under center, you would hope the group can progress.
The loss of offensive coordinator Dave Canales is a blow. He was highly touted for the work he has done with Geno Smith and Mayfield in the past two years. New offensive coordinator Liam Coen worked with Mayfield at the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, so the pair will have some familiarity on that front.
Mayfield is a tough player to judge when you look at his statistics in 2023. He finished 10th in touchdown percentage, 12th in passer rating, and 12th in total expected points added (EPA; 68.2). However, he was below average when it came to ESPN’s QBR, sitting at 18th (54.3), and finishing 20th in terms of success rate (44.7%).
The Buccaneers season as a whole was difficult to unravel, too. They finished the regular season with five wins in six games and then beat a fading Philadelphia Eagles team on Wild Card Weekend. However, of those five wins to end the regular season, the only standout result came against the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field.
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In general, Tampa Bay beat teams you would expect them to beat in 2023 and then struggled when they had to step up a level. When you combine that with the loss of Canales and other moves this team has been making leading into free agency, it is no surprise they are still considered longshots for the Super Bowl.
The return of Mayfield is certainly an upgrade over who they had on the roster at QB, Kyle Trask. It is also an upgrade over trading for the likes of Mac Jones to be their starter. The question is whether Mayfield is as good as potentially paying a little more for Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury or having got involved in the race for Russell Wilson’s signature.
Mayfield, at around $35 million a year, is certainly more of a known quantity than Cousins coming off an injury and likely costing $40+ million a year. However, Mayfield was not significantly better than Wilson last year, and the veteran QB is costing the Steelers just $1.2 million for the 2024 season.
In terms of the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds, they very much seem to be in the right region. It would not be a shock to see the Buccaneers win the NFC South again, and potentially even with 10 or 11 wins. However, it would also not be a huge shock to see them finish near the foot of the division with a five or six-win season.
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The range of outcomes for the Buccaneers is wide. Could they win the Super Bowl if they get hot down the stretch? Maybe.
To some extent, any team that can get hot can give themselves a chance, as we saw with the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in their recent playoff run. However, it arguably seems more likely we are discussing Mayfield’s future with the Buccaneers in 12 months than we are talking about another Super Bowl parade in Tampa Bay.
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