The Super Bowl 58 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs brings us a fascinating clash of styles in Las Vegas. The Chiefs bring a high-octane, risk-reward style of play, while the 49ers operate in a seemingly more methodical way.
Contrasting styles can often make for great contests, and that may well be what we have in the Super Bowl this year. With just over a week to go until the big game, here are my Super Bowl predictions and picks based on the currently available odds and betting lines.
Super Bowl 58 Odds and Predictions
49ers -127, Chiefs +107
Chiefs +7 and Over 41.5 Total Points (-111 at ESPN BET)
The current line of the Chiefs getting two points does very little for me. I expect this game to be close, and there could easily be no more than a field goal in it when all is said and done. If I was just taking one side of this spread, it would be the Chiefs +2 over the 49ers, but I would rather find a way to give myself more cushion.
Therefore, my play here is to tease the Chiefs up to +7 (-280) and get the protection of a full touchdown. I even considered buying the extra half-point to get to +7.5 (-320), but I am happy to push with a touchdown.
The second part of that teaser was just as simple for me. At 47.5, the line for this game is right in the margin of where I expect it to be. However, there are not many scenarios where I see this game having fewer than 42 points. The 49ers have proven they can play from behind, and we know the Chiefs will fight until the final moments.
Therefore, a line of Chiefs +7 taking the total down to 41.5 before grabbing the over makes a lot of sense for me here. Teasers are never exciting picks, but this one just makes sense when you can get the Chiefs up to that full touchdown.
Isiah Pacheco Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
When you think about the Chiefs, your first thought is Patrick Mahomes, but Isiah Pacheco has quietly been a star for the Chiefs in the last few weeks. He has rushed for over 70 yards in three of his last five and sat at exactly 68 against a tough Ravens run defense last week.
Pacheco has gone from a late-round upside swing to the key part of the Chiefs’ running game. He has carried the ball on 15+ occasions eight times in his last nine games. I fully expect to see getting at least 15 carries in a game that we expect to be close entering the fourth quarter.
The 49ers have also really struggled against the run in recent weeks, allowing over 100 rushing yards in their last three games.
Last week against the Lions, the 49ers gave up 182 rushing yards after giving up 136 the week before against the Packers. I fully expect them to be better against the run, but there is still plenty of room for Pacheco to hit the over here.
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
It appears that Travis Kelce has been reawakened by the scent of the NFL playoffs. After failing to top 50 receiving yards for three straight weeks, the veteran tight end has gone over 70 in each of his last three games.
This week, he faces a 49ers defense that allowed Sam LaPorta to post 97 yards on nine receptions last week. They were better against the Packers, but Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are not of the same quality as Kelce and LaPorta.
You can be sure that the 49ers will have a game plan for stopping Kelce. However, with talents such as Pacheco and Rashee Rice in the offense, that is easier said than done. Kelce should get his opportunities this week and could well hit his over with a quarter of the game to spare.
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