Fantasy football managers have become accustomed to Stefon Diggs being a top-10 fantasy wide receiver over his last four seasons with the Buffalo Bills. After getting to catch passes from superstar QB Josh Allen during that span, he’s now set to play with another ascending talent in C.J. Stroud as a member of the Houston Texans.
However, should Diggs still be considered a surefire WR1 at 30 years old after the change of scenery?
Stefon Diggs’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
With 445 receptions for 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns, Diggs’ production over his four years in Buffalo was nothing short of elite. That was an average of 111 receptions, 1,343 yards, and nine scores every season he was in a Bills uniform. Simply put, Diggs was outstanding by any standard.
Diggs became an elite fantasy WR when paired with Allen, in part because of his elite target share.
Stefon Diggs’ Target Share Since 2020
- 2023: 29.5% (9th amongst WRs)
- 2022: 28.4% (10th)
- 2021: 26.4% (13th)
- 2020: 29.1% (3rd)
Over the last four years, Diggs saw a total of 644 targets, which ranked behind only Davante Adams amongst wide receivers. Could Diggs’ elite target share have something to do with the lack of competition for targets over that span?
Outside of Diggs, Allen was generally throwing to players like Gabe Davis, Cole Beasley, and rookie Dalton Kincaid during his time in Buffalo. I’m not throwing any shade at his fellow Bills pass catchers, but that’s not going to be the case this season in Houston.
Houston Texans 2023 Receiving Stats
- Nico Collins: 80 receptions, 1,297 yards, 8 TDs (15 games)
- Tank Dell: 47 receptions, 709 yards, 7 TDs (11 games)
- Dalton Schultz: 59 receptions, 635 yards, 5 TDs (15 games)
One could certainly make the argument that Diggs steps in as the best go-to option for Stroud in his first year with the team. However, an aging veteran receiver likely having the best target competition of his last four years could lower Diggs’ elite target share by a bit in 2024.
Not to mention, Diggs also had a very quiet finish to last season. From Weeks 10 to 18, he was the WR44, with an average of just five receptions for 44 yards during that span.
The context demands that I mention the Bills’ shift in offensive philosophy towards a more run-heavy scheme during that span once Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. Even so, the drop in production was fairly significant, which matters for an aging player.
Does this mean that I’m projecting Diggs to completely fall off a cliff in 2024? No, I trust Texans’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to scheme up Diggs — who is still a great route runner — as a moveable weapon to help elevate Stroud’s game.
Yet, I’m not sure I can confidently say Diggs will see north of 130 targets this year. Stroud spread the ball around effectively last year and has the core of his receiver group returning in 2024.
Similar to the crowded situation in Seattle with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I could see all of Houston’s receivers having some volatile production this upcoming season.
Diggs’ current ADP sits at No. 40 overall (WR19 off the board), which puts him near the end of the fourth round in your fantasy draft — the same range as Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Cooper Kupp, and Michael Pittman Jr.
It’s hard for me to project a similar stat line to what we saw from Diggs in Buffalo due to his elevated target competition in Houston. Is he the best WR on the roster? Yes, I still believe he is, but I’m not sure it’s by a big enough margin for him to still see north of a 26% target share.
For this reason, I would rather go in a different direction at Diggs’ current ADP.
