Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in the playoffs after a bizarre turn of events in Week 18. They have no time to lick the wounds of the regular season, as it’s straight back into the fire to face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Let’s take a look at the Steelers vs. Chiefs Wild Card matchup, the NFL odds, and make a pick and prediction.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds, prediction
- Spread: Chiefs -12.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -675, Steelers +475
- Over/Under: 46
Steelers in too deep?
The Steelers had all but waved goodbye to Big Ben. Then in Week 18, everything started to suddenly shift when the Colts lost to the Jaguars. Pittsburgh found themselves in what had been a very unlikely scenario — all they had to do was beat the Ravens, and they’d be in the postseason.
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The Steelers got the job done and everything worked into place for Pittsburgh to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. Unfortunately, that means they have to travel to Kansas City and try to beat the Chiefs in their own backyard. That’s no easy feat for any team, let alone one that crept in with a 9-7-1 record. The two sides met only a few weeks ago, in Week 16. The Chiefs took that game in a 36-10 drubbing.
Chiefs warming up just in time
Early in the season, this was not the Chiefs we had grown used to. They were struggling to put drives together and missing the explosive element of their offense. The Chiefs started the year 3-4 and got bullied by both the Bills and the Titans.
Nevertheless, Kansas City turned it around, figured it out, and put it right. An eight-game win streak that included victories over the Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, and Raiders showed us they were back. In the end, Patrick Mahomes threw 37 touchdowns on the season and 13 interceptions.
Surprisingly, it was the Kansas City defense that got our attention this year. They started to shut teams down as the season went on, offering more opportunities to Mahomes and the offense. If this Chiefs team has Mahomes playing at his best and a defense playing strong, they’re going to be very tough to beat.
Steelers vs. Chiefs betting trends
The Chiefs go into this one on a five-game stretch of cashing overs. Kansas City has scored at least 28 points in each of those games and won four of them. However, they’ve lost their last two against the spread. The close fight against the Bengals (which resulted in a loss) had originally favored the Chiefs by 3.5 points. They were then 11-point favorites in Week 18 but beat the Broncos 28-24.
As for the Steelers, they won three of their last four games and covered all three against the spread too. The anomaly? The Chiefs. The Steelers were 10.5-point underdogs going into that game and lost by 26.
Steelers vs. Chiefs prediction
For the Steelers to win this game, they will need to be perfect. Big Ben has limited capabilities in throwing the ball deep down the field, so the game plan will have to be smart — and perfectly executed. Pittsburgh will need to absolutely make sure that they can get rookie standout Najee Harris involved in this game.
If the Chiefs front shuts him out, putting it all on the arm of Big Ben for the Steelers, the game will become way too one-dimensional and easy to defend. It’s fantastic for Roethlisberger to get one final shot in the playoffs, but this is no fairytale. Give me the Chiefs to win, comfortably, and the over in this one.
Steelers vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 37, Steelers 17