In this matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills, we get a head coach who fields competitive teams against a quarterback who is capable of deciding the game, for better or worse.
Where do the numbers trend to get us to a +365 ticket on our Steelers vs. Bills same game parlay?
Steelers vs. Bills Betting Lines
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- Spread
Bills -10 - Moneyline
Steelers +380, Bills -500 - Total
35.5
Steelers vs. Bills Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: The fact that the Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin is well known. How many losing seasons have the Bills had over that stretch (2007-23)?
Some games are very cut-and-dry. You know what both teams bring to the table, the weather isn’t a concern, and after 18 weeks, you’re confident in your overall evaluation of the team.
And then there are games like this.
Games that feature a sporadic QB on one side who can single-handedly dictate the outcome of a game – in either direction.
Games that feature a QB riding a heater and averaging 44.8% more yards per pass attempt over the past month than he has for his career as a whole.
Games that feature coaches we trust and players that we don’t.
Games that are coming off the heels of a major snowstorm and could still see residual weather effects.
Trying to handicap this game is difficult, but in times of chaos, value can sometimes be found where you least expect it. The total for this game reflects the pessimism in terms of offensive success, and that makes logical sense, but I’m in the business of trying to pick off a few props that have over-adjusted.
Last week in New England, we had the Jets and Patriots square off in a game that had no playoff ramifications and similarly poor weather conditions. Both teams were motivated just to end their seasons and go home.
The Patriots trailed by one possession for 12 of their 15 drives. They were playing from behind, but they were more competitive than the spread suggests the Steelers will be this week. In that game, Bailey Zappe fired 30 passes.
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If Mason Rudolph flirts with that number, I like our chances with the props I’ve selected. Zappe only completed 12 of those passes, but that was in part due to a 10.6 aDOT that didn’t make much sense given the conditions (he was 6 of 8 when throwing short to running backs and 6 of 22 on all other throws).
Rudolph has posted a 7.1 aDOT this season in his starts, a pattern of passing that has allowed him to complete 74.6% of his attempts. With the Bills ranking ninth in pressure rate, the fact that they own the second-lowest opponent aDOT isn’t a surprise.
Buffalo encourages dump-off passes, and Pittsburgh is likely to take them – it might just be optimal for both sides. The Bills know that they are unlikely to bleed to death via 1,000 paper cuts, while the Steelers know that if they want to pull off the upset, sustaining drives is likely their best bet.
The beauty about basing two-thirds of this SGP on the Steelers pass game is that I’m not worried about the game script. If you had to allocate the percentage chance of each of the three possible outcomes, what would they be?
- Bills win in a blowout
- Close game with neither team separating
- Steelers win in a blowout
For me, the first two outcomes account for at least 90% of the likelihood, and those are both supporting this ticket.
If the Black and Gold are moving the ball through the short pass, Diontae Johnson is in a spot to assume the alpha target earner role. Despite a more conservative target tree than George Pickens, Johnson has showcased the ability to make chunk plays (25+ yard catch in six of his past seven games), giving him a nice skill set for a low yardage total.
The belief in Johnson is partly a bet on rational coaching. The Bills are the heavy favorite for a reason, and if they can stop the Steelers from making the huge plays, they have to like their chances. That train of thought leads me to think that they make Pickens (last two games: 11 catches for 326 yards with a 15.0 aDOT) the target of their rapidly improving defense.
As for my game analysis, this is the Bills’ game to lose. The spread says as much and so does essentially every other statistical measure you could consider.
- BUF: top 12 in yards per play, yards-per-play defense, red-zone offense
- PIT: bottom 12 in yards per play, yards-per-play defense, red-zone offense
I don’t love laying a big number in the elements (though, if you forced me to pick, I would), so I’m going to target a specific spot.
The even-numbered quarters are inherently higher scoring than the odd ones due to the motivation to be aggressive at the end of the period. There’s a chance Buffalo doesn’t need to push the envelope late in the game, so I landed on the second quarter as my area of interest.
The Bills have been a top-five second-quarter scoring team in consecutive seasons, and guess who was the fifth worst scoring second quarter team this season?
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You bet, the Steelers. Arthur Smith couldn’t pull any of the right levers in Atlanta this season — and yet, his Falcons scored more points in the second quarter than these Steelers.
Of course, there is risk in making a bet like this, as we have no idea where the possession will be when the second quarter opens, but it seems likely that we get at least one highly aggressive Bills drive late, and that might well be enough against a Steelers offense that I don’t trust to threaten the end zone with any sort of regularity.
DraftKings opened with the spread for the second quarter under a field goal. Sold. I don’t mind paying the -135 juice to clear a key number and put a bow on this SGP!
- Trivia Answer: Nine. The Bills have had nine losing seasons during the Mike Tomlin era.
- Same Game Parlay: Bills (-2.5) Q2, Diontae Johnson over 36.5 receiving yards, Mason Rudolph over 16.5 completions
- Odds: +360 (at DraftKings)
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