After a tough couple of years, Samaje Perine has carved out a role with the Cincinnati Bengals. That role has put Perine on the radar of fantasy football managers after seeing him continue to earn opportunities. However, can Perine now take that next step in terms of fantasy value and provide a return on his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Samaje Perine ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Perine’s current ADP in redraft fantasy football leagues is right around 250th overall in all formats. His ADP is a couple of rounds higher in PPR formats than in non-PPR. In all three formats, Perine is being selected in the region of RB72-80 off the board.
To put that into context, in a 12-team league, the end of the 20th round is the 240th selection. Therefore, Perine is largely going undrafted in all three formats. Perine is essentially a free investment in fantasy leagues currently. Part of the reason for that ADP may be that he started training camp on the PUP list. We have seen his ADP rise a touch since he returned to practice and saw the field in preseason games.
Perine’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Perine is entering his third year with the Bengals, and his role has been largely the same. His output evolved somewhat in 2021, but the impact on his fantasy value was largely negligible. In 2020, Perine saw 207 snaps with 74 touches for 367 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns. Last year, he had 276 snaps and returned 82 touches for 442 yards from scrimmage with two scores.
The most intriguing part of his numbers is the growth in passing-game opportunities. In 2020, Perine had 11 receptions on 12 targets for 66 yards. He saw a big jump in targets last year, with 31, that he turned into 27 receptions for 196 yards and a TD.
It became quite apparent last season that the Bengals did not trust Joe Mixon on third down. That saw Perine become the back they had on the field in those situations, and he played the role well. We have heard plenty this preseason about how the Bengals are moving on from the idea of Mixon as a three-down back. That has opened up the opportunity for Perine to see more development in his role.
The concern is that even with that growth in his role, Perine only finished with one more fantasy point in non-PPR formats in 2021 than in 2020. He also still finished outside the top 60 RBs in terms of fantasy scoring. There was a bigger growth in PPR, but still not enough to move Perine up significantly.
Additionally, even with Mixon’s role on third down diminishing as the year went on, he was not a complete non-factor in the passing game. Mixon saw 14 targets in the final two games of the 2021 season, suggesting we are not suddenly going to see Perine adding the majority of Mixon’s 48 targets from last year.
The looming presence of Chris Evans
As well as having Mixon entrenched as the starter in front of him, Perine is looking over this shoulder. While Perine was on the PUP list, early training camp reports indicated that second-year RB Chris Evans was pushing the veteran hard for playing time this season. Evans left a strong impression in Week 18 of the 2021 season with seven carries for 35 yards and four receptions for 24 yards and a touchdown.
If Evans’ role expands this season, it is going to cut significantly into the growth of Perine. The only other back to see touches in 2021 was Trayveon Williams, with 15 rush attempts and one reception on two targets. Those touches would be reasonably valuable in terms of potentially pushing Perine inside the top 60 at the position. But if he has to share them as well as any pass-catching opportunities that filter away from Mixon, it severely hurts his ceiling.
The other big question in the Bengals’ backfield is what happens if Mixon gets hurt. When he missed time in 2020, Giovani Bernard saw the additional snaps and the touches that came with it. Perine was on the roster that year and still did not get over 65 rush attempts or 15 targets. There is no guarantee that if Mixon missed time, Perine would see extra work, not Evans.
That is a huge dent for any player when projecting their fantasy output. Usually, the second back on the depth chart would be expected to step up into a major role if the starter got injured. The problem is, we do not know who that second back is or if the Bengals would even feature one of the two heavily.
Should you draft Perine in 2022?
Across the past two seasons, Perine has averaged 3.5 fantasy points per game in non-PPR and 4.65 in PPR. To break into the top 50 RBs, Perine needs to get those returns above 8 points per game in PPR and 6.4 points per game in standard. That is a huge jump from the points he averaged last year.
If we knew Perine was set to be the featured back if Mixon went down, his current ADP would present value as a handcuff. In our 2022 fantasy RB rankings, Perine sits just inside the top 200 overall and the top 70 RBs. Based on his current ADP, that makes him a potential bargain.
However, the concern is that Perine is stuck in a tough situation. In his role with Mixon healthy, his week-to-week value does not even make him a solid Flex option in a pinch. Meanwhile, if Mixon was to get hurt, the presence of Evans severely limits his ceiling.
If you play in a format that is deep enough that you make more than 250 picks, selecting Perine just ahead of his ADP is a solid option. However, there are more intriguing options in the later rounds of 16-round, 12-team drafts right now that you should be looking to take a shot on before considering Perine and the potential headaches he will present to fantasy managers.
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