Coming off a rocky rookie season, is Justin Fields’ ADP in fantasy football something you should consider taking advantage of? At times, it was not pretty for Fields and the Chicago Bears, but there is a new regime in charge now. The question is whether that is a good or bad thing for Fields’ fantasy value and whether he is a player to target or avoid in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Justin Fields ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Fields’ current ADP sees him taken as the QB17. When evaluating QB ADPs, it is best to consider where they rank relative to the position. The reason is that their overall ADP varies hugely depending on whether it is a 1QB or Superflex league. The QB14 or 15 off the board is likely being selected in the first two rounds of a Superflex league but is a likely late-round selection in 1QB formats. That can be the difference between 130 or 140 in overall ADP.
Currently, Fields is being viewed as a mid QB2 on average. His ADP as the QB17 means that if Fields is being selected in 1QB leagues, it is in the final two or three rounds. There is some intriguing variation in Fields’ ADP across different sites. On the majority of sites, he is the QB16-18 off the board. However, on Yahoo, that ADP drops to the QB23.
Fields’ projected fantasy value in 2022
There is so much to unpack when it comes to Fields’ projected value in 2022. Looking back at his rookie season, there were encouraging signs. He averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game, but included in that are two games where he did not start (Weeks 1 and 2). Therefore, if we remove those games, we get a more accurate reflection of his value.
Without those two games, Fields averaged 11.7 ppg. Even then, that is still a pretty poor return for fantasy managers. However, his output improved through the season. In Weeks 3-5, he scored a total of 20 fantasy points. From Week 6 onward, he only scored fewer than 10 fantasy points on two occasions. In those weeks, he averaged 13.8 ppg, including finishing with four games of 16 ppg or more in his final five starts.
Unfortunately, the change in coaching staff means that Fields very much needs to start over in 2022. Still, there are more positives than negatives. Luke Getsy comes over from Green Bay, where he was the QB coach for two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, to be the Bears OC. Things will need time to change, but Fields has the raw skills to be a very good fantasy producer if he can get it all to click.
Fields’ passing started to look better at the end of his rookie year. We also saw flashes of the way he can use his legs to provide fantasy value. There is a lot of upside, but as we saw at times in 2021, there is also risk.
Should you draft Justin Fields in 2022?
Fields’ ADP is such that in 1QB leagues, he is, at best, a very late-round selection. In Superflex, the situation is different, where he is floating in the high-to-mid QB2 range. He is closer to the middle of that tier in PFN’s consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings.
In 1QB leagues, if you want to throw a late-round selection at Fields as an upside play, no one would bat an eye. In 1QB formats, there will always be streaming options available. If your starter and Fields are both struggling, you can usually find an option to start on the waiver wire. Therefore, pairing a “safe” option like Aaron Rodgers or Matthew Stafford with Fields’ upside is a solid plan.
In Superflex, things are different because you are essentially investing in a QB2 who will be expected to start most weeks. If you take the chance on Fields as your QB2, you need to leave the draft with a QB3 you feel confident can provide you a decent floor output most weeks. If Fields struggles, you may have to turn to that third option on a regular basis, and finding someone on the waiver wire is tough.
If I am looking to draft Fields as my QB2, I have a very clear plan. I would want a QB1 I feel confident is going to start every week, avoiding a player like Trey Lance, for example. Then I want to target Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, or Carson Wentz as my QB3, so I have a player whose floor I am comfortable turning to. The issue with this approach is you are essentially committing three picks in the first 10-12 rounds to the QB position, knowing you can only ever start two of them.
The thing is, if Fields can reach even 80-90% of his ceiling, it might just be worth the risk.
