Joe Burrow’s fantasy football ADP has a wide range as the Cincinnati Bengals QB comes off a Super Bowl appearance last year. Has that playoff run boosted his value above where it should realistically be, or is Burrow’s ADP a solid value in fantasy football drafts?
Joe Burrow ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
In terms of the QB position for fantasy, it’s best to look at ADP in the terms of the position rather than where they sit overall. Between 1QB or Superflex draft position can vary by 20 to 120 selections. However, their value relative to the rest of the position remains largely the same.
Burrow’s ADP is currently QB6. On some sites, he’s going as high as the QB5, while on others, his ADP is down at QB10. In 1QB leagues, Burrow is being selected in the fifth to the sixth round, and he’s largely being selected in Round 1 of Superflex leagues. That emphasizes the difference between the two formats in terms of the effect on QB values.
Joe Burrow’s projected fantasy value in 2022
There is a lot to unpack when it comes to Burrow’s fantasy outlook for 2022. He finished as the QB10 in terms of points per game (ppg) last year with 19.6. However, he did so on an offense that threw the ball just 555 times last year. That is approximately 30 fewer pass attempts for the season than the NFL average from 2021. The Bengals were also one of the slowest teams in terms of pace of play.
Therefore, it’s logical to think that there could be some regression in both of those elements this year. If that were to happen, then Burrow would likely throw the ball more and have the opportunity to assemble more fantasy points.
However, the pace of play and pass attempts are not simply a metric of regression, they’re dictated by the coaching staff. We haven’t seen any changes in the Bengals’ coaching staff, so there’s no guarantee of wholesale changes in offensive philosophy.
Burrow was one of the most efficient passers last season
The regression theory for Burrow holds true in many ways. However, many of those actually play against Burrow repeating his numbers in 2022. He led the league in pass completion percentage (70.4) and yards per attempt (8.9). His pass completion percentage is not that far ahead of the rest of the position, and a 1% increase only equates to five or six passes being completed.
However, Burrow led the position by 0.3 yards per pass attempt, was 1.1 yards ahead of the fifth-placed passer, and 1.4 yards per attempt above Justin Herbert in 10th. Over 520 pass attempts, those numbers equate to 156, 572, and 728 yards, which is 6.24, 22.88, and 29.12 fantasy points in standard QB scoring. Burrow accumulated those numbers over 16 games, so it’s 0.39, 1.43, and 1.82 ppg he benefited from with his efficiency.
If we take the middle of those three numbers (1.43), as expecting Burrow to regress to a top-five level is not a big reach, then his fantasy output drops to 18.17 ppg, which would have seen him finish 12th at the position. Not a major drop from the QB10, but still a drop nonetheless.
Combine that with a slight decrease in pass completion, and it drops a little more. Still the QB12, but nonetheless, closer to being a non-starting option in 1QB leagues.
Offensive line improvements
The Bengals’ offensive line improvements this offseason can be viewed as a pro and a con in some ways. Cincinnati’s run game ranked 23rd in terms of rushing efficiency at 4.0 yards per attempt. Their lead RB, Joe Mixon, was 25th in terms of yards before contact per attempt. He finished eighth in broken tackles last year and averaged 1.9 yards after contact per attempt.
Now, if Mixon and this offense have a more effective run game — thanks to an improved offensive line — that could actually shift the balance of the offense further towards the run game.
If that results in just two fewer pass attempts per game, Burrow would be barely above 30 attempts per game. If he averaged exactly two fewer pass attempts per game, Burrow would have finished 26th in that metric, below Mac Jones and Taylor Heinicke at 30.6 and 30.9, respectively.
The positive of the offensive line improvements is Burrow should be under pressure less. However, despite the offensive line concerns, Burrow’s pressure rate was the 14th highest at the position (24.5%) and just above the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
Additionally, Burrow made remarkably few bad throws despite this offensive line, ranking the best in the league at 10.7%. Meanwhile, he led the league in on-target throws (82.8%).
Yet, Burrow led the league in sacks at 51 and was fifth in terms of sack rate (8.9%). Sacks do not impact QB fantasy points in most scoring. Pressure and sacks lead to negative fantasy points through bad throws, something Burrow barely did in 2022.
Given he was already the best in the league among qualifiers in that metric, can we reasonably expect any further improvement with these o-line additions? It’s questionable, to say the least.
Should you draft Burrow in 2022?
None have what has been laid out above is saying Burrow will be a bad QB in 2022. In all likelihood, he will regress slightly in some areas, but he won’t suddenly be bad. As we laid out, with moderate regression, Burrow was still a top-12 QB.
The narrative around Burrow is that there will be regression this year, but the majority are positive implications: quicker pace of play, more pass attempts, etc.
However, those are not major regression statistics, they are coach and scheme-dependent statistics. Nothing about Burrow’s scheme or coaching staff has changed this offseason. He is who he is. So why is his ADP as high as QB5 with an average as the QB7?
In PFN’s consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings, Burrow is 10th, exactly where he finished last year. Yes, there are reasons to hope for improvement, but there’s also a myriad of reasons why that improvement might not happen and why he may actually have a lower output this year. Therefore, Burrow’s ADP floor to be his finishing point from last year is a mistake.
Burrow is a perfectly fine QB1 option for your fantasy team. There’s room for regression, and he still finishes there. There is also reason to hope he can finish in the region of a top-five QB this year. The problem is that currently, Burrow is being drafted too close to his ceiling and a long way from his realistic floor.
Taking Burrow as the QB8-10 is the true value for him. Moving on him any earlier leaves you open to a huge loss of draft-based value when the end of the year rolls around.
