Jarvis Landry is back home in Louisiana, and his new surroundings present a lot of intrigue in his fantasy football value. As part of a strong trio of receivers in New Orleans, can he roll back the years to when he was a consistent top-24 fantasy option? Let’s examine Landry’s ADP and whether he is a good investment at his current price in 2022 fantasy drafts.
Jarvis Landry ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Landry’s current ADP in redraft fantasy leagues is in the 11th to 13th rounds of 12-team leagues. His ADP in non-PPR is actually slightly higher, at around 140th overall, while it is about a round later at 150th in PPR formats.
In terms of his ADP compared to the position, Landry is being selected in the WR50-60 region, depending on the format. Therefore, you can essentially draft Landry as a WR5 option in a 12-team league and a borderline WR4 in a 14-team league. Either way, he would be set to start the season as, at best, a Flex starter and, more likely, as a bench option. Even in 16-team leagues, drafting Landry at his current price would not dictate he needs to be an immediate starter for you.
Landry’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The whole situation surrounding New Orleans has a different but somewhat familiar feeling, especially in terms of the offense. Sean Payton is gone, and Dennis Allen was promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach. However, Pete Carmichael remains the offensive coordinator, a role he has occupied since 2009. The difference now is that the training wheels have been taken off. Carmichael no longer has Payton overlooking everything and calling the shots. This offense is his, and his alone to run.
To really get a feel for what a Carmichael offense might look like, we can look at 2012, when Payton was suspended. That year, the Saints led the league in passing yards and touchdowns and were second in passing attempts. In contrast, they ran the ball the fourth fewest times. However, the difference was they had Drew Brees in his prime, not Jameis Winston coming off a season-ending knee injury.
It would be a surprise if Carmichael changed the offense radically. He worked under Payton for so long that the philosophies must be similar by this point. However, Carmichael also worked under the Marty Schottenheimer/Malcolm Cameron offense in San Diego, which never finished inside the top 10 in terms of pass attempts when the trio was together.
To further complicate matters, Landry is part of an overhaul in the WR room. Michael Thomas is back in the fold, although he is dealing with a hamstring injury, and they drafted Chris Olave in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Things quite simply look a lot different in New Orleans this year.
Can the offense in New Orleans support three receivers?
Last year, Winston averaged 25.2 pass attempts per game in the first six games, but before his injury, the offense was just starting to open up. In Weeks 5 and 7, they averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game, up from just 21.5 in the first four games. While Winston only completed just over 50% of his passes in those two games, he did have 501 yards and five touchdowns.
The injury to Thomas in the preseason, plus his recent history of struggles, combined with Olave being a rookie, should be positive for Landry. He has every chance of leading the team in snaps at WR and potentially even WR targets through the first few weeks. Once Olave is fully worked in, and if Thomas remains healthy, we could see a much more even share. If Thomas is at his very best, he should dominate the target share.
The likely best-case scenario for this offense is that Winston averages 32.5 attempts per game. A healthy Thomas would command around a 25-30% share of those (8-10). That leaves 22-24 targets per game between the other weapons. Alvin Kamara is likely skimming another 5-7 targets off, leaving 15-17.
To reach his previous heights as a fantasy asset, Landry needs to get 8-10 of those, which is a big ask. Landry seeing a 25-30% target share is extremely unlikely. Given his average depth of target has decreased year over year, if he can only get 5-7 targets per game, his upside will be greatly limited.
Should you draft Landry in 2022?
As stated above, if you draft Landry, you are essentially taking him as a WR4/5. Therefore, there is no real aim to start him in the first month of the season unless you draft upside for later in the season at WR3/4. However, the first month might very well be Landry’s best time of the season as a fantasy asset. If Thomas and Olave are limited in terms of snaps, Landry could very well lead the WR group in most categories. If that is the case, Landry could be a sell-high candidate by Week 3 or 4.
In PFN consensus WR fantasy rankings, Landry sits between the WR51 in full-PPR and the WR60 in non-PPR. In terms of his overall ranking, Landry is in the 130s and the 150s, respectively. However, we do not include defenses and kickers in our overall rankings, so that is not a direct comparison to ADP for leagues that use one or both of those positions.
What is clear from our rankings and ADP is that Landry is not a value right now in non-PPR. He is a close-to-the-line receiver who relies on a heavy target share to have any kind of ceiling. That is tough to achieve in non-PPR. However, in half- or full-PPR, the value of that type of receiver grows exponentially. In those formats, Landry’s value is pretty spot on.
I am targeting Landry on teams where I have chased upside in the earlier rounds. If you gamble on the likes of Drake London, Treylon Burks, or Olave, who might need time to become fantasy assets, then Landry has a shot to be an early week starter.
The Saints start with matchups against the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Panthers. The Falcons and Panthers could be teams that the Saints pass all over. Meanwhile, the game with Tampa Bay could easily be a shootout. That is an intriguing trio of games if Landry is going to be the Saints’ WR1. Then there could be an opportunity to trade him before Thomas and Olave have a bigger role.
Thomas is really the key here. We know Olave will likely grow into the offense. Yet, if Thomas cannot shake off these nagging injuries, he could very well be an afterthought. If that is the case, Landry can retain intriguing WR3 value through the season. If Thomas shrugs off the hamstring injury, he should be the WR1, with Landry and Olave fighting for the remaining targets after Kamara. That is not a place you want to be, making Landry a tough player to evaluate.
Landry’s limited scope means you should not reach for him ahead of his ADP. However, in either PPR or half-PPR, taking him at his ADP is a solid value. He could be an emergency starter in the first month and then a potential trade chip in and around the third or fourth week if teams are panicking at WR.
