Last season saw Dotrell Hilliard give fantasy football managers a glimpse of his potential value as an asset. However, with the Tennessee Titans drafting a running back in the 2022 NFL Draft, will Hilliard once again see limited opportunities? Let’s examine what role Hilliard may play with the Titans in 2022 and whether he presents value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts.
Dontrell Hilliard ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
If you play in PPR or half-PPR, Hilliard’s current ADP is outside of the top 230. He is going a handful of selections earlier in half-PPR leagues but is still being selected outside the top 65 options available at the position. Somewhat strangely, his ADP in non-PPR is inside the top 200 as the RB60.
To provide some context, that means that in a 12-team league, Hilliard is not being selected inside the first 20 rounds. In most leagues, this means that he is going undrafted. In deeper formats, Hilliard is a fringe late-round selection. With an extremely small sample size in terms of touches (119) from his four-year career, it is no surprise that there is hesitation in committing to the Titans RB.
Hilliard’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Projecting Hilliard’s role in 2022 is tough to do because we have a limited frame of reference with both Hilliard and Derrick Henry active. During the regular season, they were both only active for one game in Week 8, but Hilliard did not play an offensive snap.
The only sample we have comes from the Titans’ playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. In that game, Hilliard played 11 offensive snaps. However, he did not log a single carry while catching all three of his targets for 13 yards. Henry handled most of the run game with 20 carries. Even though Henry was not fully healthy, Hilliard’s role in the run game was nonexistent.
That is somewhat what many are expecting to see in 2022. Henry should shoulder the majority of the rushing work, but there are certainly opportunities in the passing game. Henry has never seen more than 31 targets in a single season, and Hilliard saw 26 last season on just 198 snaps.
The departure of D’Onta Foreman appeared to provide Hilliard a path to the backup role. However, Tennessee drafted Hassan Haskins in the fourth round, and he will likely be in the mix if Henry gets injured. Therefore, Hilliard’s route to fantasy relevance is through a pass-catching role in the offense.
Could we see a role similar to that of James White?
The recent retirement of James White is somewhat timely as Hilliard could see a similar role with the Titans that White saw with the Patriots. White never logged a 100-carry season in his career but was able to find fringe fantasy relevance with his role in the passing game. In both 2018 and 2019, White scored over 200 fantasy points in PPR, thanks in large part to his ability to make plays in the passing game.
Those two seasons are worth focusing on because it shows the upside a primarily pass-catching back can have. The 2018 season was the main one of White’s career from a fantasy perspective. He finished as the RB11 in non-PPR and the RB7 in PPR despite having fewer than 200 touches. He had just 94 carries for 425 yards but added 751 receiving yards on 87 receptions. It also significantly helped that he found the end zone 12 times.
The following season was not as good, but White was still relevant. He finished as the RB29 in non-PPR and the RB18 in PPR with under 150 touches. He turned 67 rush attempts into 263 yards and had 72 receptions for 645 receiving yards while finding the end zone six times.
What White’s numbers demonstrate is that while there is a tight path to fantasy relevance for pass-catching backs, it is possible. The Titans targeted the RB position 95 times last season. Even if Henry and Haskins were to see 35-40 of them this year, there is the potential for Hilliard to be a 50-plus target RB. That can certainly have value, especially in PPR or half-PPR formats.
Should you draft Hilliard in 2022?
Entering the season, Hilliard is a player that our analysts at PFN view as somewhat of a bargain in PPR based on his ADP. In our 2022 fantasy PPR rankings, Hilliard is just inside the top 150. That is a big difference from his actual ADP, more than five rounds in a 12-team league. However, it is still on the fringes of a draftable option in those formats.
While Hilliard is a bargain compared to his ADP for our analysts, that does not mean you should draft him in 10- or 12-team leagues. Most leagues of that size are 14- to 16-round drafts, meaning that 168 to 192 players are drafted. That usually includes defenses and kickers, which our rankings do not. Therefore, even in the last round, we still rank Hilliard outside of the draftable range.
By all means, in a PPR format, if you are looking for a player who has the chance to catch 50 passes, give Hilliard a look. Nevertheless, there are other players available in the area who are one injury away from a major role. That is less likely for Hilliard with Haskins on the roster. Hilliard managed just 56 carries in seven games without Henry last year. The Titans did not give him a full workload, and they would likely split that workload with Haskins if Henry misses time.
In deeper formats — 16-to-20 team leagues — Hilliard does become intriguing in the double-digit rounds. His pass-catching ability could see him putting up regular points, and if he does get the odd carry on top of that, he has some nice potential. If he carves out the pass-catching role that many expect, we could see him as a deep-league Flex option, regardless of whether Henry is active or not.
