Rookie running back Dameon Pierce’s fantasy football ADP has been rising in recent weeks as he appears to have the inside track for the starting RB role in Houston. With that ADP for Pierce on the rise, should managers look to target him in 2022 fantasy drafts, or is he reaching a point where the risk outweighs the reward?
Dameon Pierce ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Pierce’s current ADP in redraft leagues has been climbing to a point where he is just outside the top 100 overall in all formats. On average, across all the various sites, he is going between the RB37 and RB45, depending on the format. His ADP is marginally higher in non-PPR than in the other two formats. However, it is worth noting that Pierce’s ADP is all the way up in the 50th-overall region on some sites.
Pierce is a tough player to assess the value of because unless your site refreshes its ADP regularly, you could be seeing out-of-date data. On some sites, he is already being selected in the fifth round of drafts. As the enthusiasm around him continues to grow, that could only go further.
Pierce’s projected fantasy value in 2022
It is not hard to understand the enthusiasm growing around Pierce’s fantasy outlook for 2022. His main competition for touches remains the injury-prone Marlon Mack and journeyman Rex Burkhead. Mack was cut but then returned to the practice squad before being cut again. Therefore, Pierce has a fantastic opportunity to lock down a role as the starting running back for the Texans and dominate the touches.
Pierce was selected out of Florida in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He was somewhat under the radar this offseason because of his light workload during his time at Florida. He never had more than 123 touches or 106 carries in a single season. Over the course of four years, he had just 329 rushing attempts and 45 receptions. However, he averaged six yards per touch and 5.5 yards per rush attempt while scoring 28 total touchdowns.
It is tough to know exactly what the Texans’ offense will look like this year simply because of the wholesale coaching changes. Pep Hamilton was the passing game coordinator last year, so we know roughly how that will look, but the run game and the balance of pass and run could look very different.
In terms of the potential receiving work, there are opportunities. David Johnson had 42 targets in 13 games, and Burkhead had 32. The backs were not heavily utilized, but if Pierce can get 40-50 targets on top of being the lead back in terms of carries, that could be vital.
The concern in terms of workload is how much the Texans have to play from behind. Only eight teams ran the ball less than Houston’s 420 attempts last season, and they are unlikely to be much more competitive this year. However, Pierce has an opportunity to command a 50% or greater share of the carries, so he has the potential to see 250 touches this year.
Should you draft Pierce in 2022?
With players whose ADP is on the move, the key is to know your value on them and stick to it. Where things get dangerous is when you start predicting their value and reach above your estimation of them. Take a player too high, and you absorb their ceiling, meaning it is very hard for them to return value on their draft position.
In PFN’s consensus 2022 RB fantasy rankings, Pierce is sitting right around the RB35 in the region of the 80th player off the board. That is slightly higher than his consensus ADP but not as high as it has crept on some sites. The value we see Pierce at currently is just inside the seventh round as a borderline RB2.
The reason he has not climbed higher is the uncertainty over how much he will play in a passing role. With the Texans expected to be trailing a lot this season. If Pierce has issues pass blocking, we could see a lot more of Burkhead in the second half of games. Additionally, with 200+ rushing attempts seeming like a realistic expectation, Pierce needs to be involved in the passing game to really push any higher than fringe RB2 value.
There is a lot to balance with Pierce’s value. His ADP will likely continue to bounce around as we head into the season, and finding the midpoint in that value is often the key. Right now, somewhere in the seventh or eighth round appears to be that midpoint. The key is not to be so invested in drafting Pierce that you take him so high that you draw the value out of his selection. It is a delicate balance, but one that is key with players whose stock is on the rise.
