Every year, a new batch of young wide receivers enters the league. It would be awesome if all of them wound up being great. As any NFL fan or fantasy football manager knows, that’s never the case.
Last year, I did a study on when it’s OK to give up on certain wide receivers after their rookie season. One year later, let’s revisit the data, see how effective it was at predicting how the 2023 rookies would fare in 2024, and what it tells us about the 2024 WR class.
Can We Completely Dismiss Underperforming Wide Receivers After Their Rookie Season?
Whenever a higher-drafted rookie performs poorly, we often hear the same refrain: “Give him time.” Well, I’m here to tell you that you should not give him time. In fact, you should do the complete opposite.
The purpose of this study is to highlight signals that indicate a wide receiver is unlikely to be a future fantasy asset. It is not to tell us who will be good. For that, there will be a follow-up article covering how we can utilize rookie receiving production to predict the level of greatness. Today, we’re focused on ruling out players from being productive fantasy assets.
Here is the theory in its simplest form: If a rookie wide receiver does not reach 525 receiving yards, he’s not going to be useful for fantasy football.
Before we get into this, I want to give credit where it is due. I did not come up with this concept. It is mentioned frequently in the dynasty subreddit, and there are some quality posts discussing it. However, I’ve never actually seen it really explained in a more formal article. That is what I hope to accomplish.
**If you have seen something like this elsewhere, please share it with me on Twitter. I want to give credit to anyone who has done this research before me, and will gladly link to it here.**
The Parameters
Before we discuss specific players, let’s be clear about what we’re doing. I’m sure most of you know JJ Zachariason. He runs lateround.com and is one of the most well-respected minds in fantasy.
When discussing his ZAP model, Zachariason utilizes data dating back to 2011. Why 2011? Those of us playing fantasy back then remember the great QB boom of 2011. It was a pivotal year in football when the game really started to shift to a passing league. So, like Zachariason, I will be using WR data dating back to 2011 as our sample size.
From 2011 through 2022, 156 wide receivers were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. Why only the first three rounds? Day 3 picks are extremely unlikely to matter in fantasy anyway. They are already outliers. No one expects them to be good. We are focused on the players who should be good.
Why am I stopping at 2022? The purpose of this part of the analysis is to see what rookie receiving production tells us about a player’s future performance. Players drafted in 2023 and 2024 have only two seasons of data.
Again, we have 156 wide receivers in our sample from 2011-2022. Of those 156 Day 1 or Day 2 wide receivers, 95 of them recorded fewer than 525 receiving yards as rookies. Now, we need a way to evaluate their future performance.
There are 12 WR1s every year. However, the cutoff for what constitutes a WR1 changes relative to the position’s overall performance. Generally speaking, I use the following thresholds for production.
WR1: 16+ fantasy points per game
WR2: 14-16 ppg
WR3: 12-13 ppg
More Than 80% of Wide Receivers Never Posted a WR3 Season
Of our 95 wide receivers, a whopping 80 never produced a single season where they averaged at least 12 fantasy points per game. That’s an 84.2% bust rate for wide receivers who fail to reach 525 receiving yards in their rookie season. Furthermore, 69 never even got to 10 fantasy points per game in a season. That’s 72.6%.
We now have 15 wide receivers who scored at least 12 points per game in at least one season. We will analyze that specific group of players to prove that the bust rate is even higher than it appears.
Here are the 15 WRs who produced at least one season of 12 fantasy points per game after failing to reach 525 receiving yards as rookies. Their rookie receiving yards are in parentheses.
- Michael Gallup (507)
- Michael Pittman Jr. (503)
- DeVante Parker (494)
- Kenny Golladay (477)
- Cordarrelle Patterson (469)
- Davante Adams (446)
- Nico Collins (446)
- Randall Cobb (375)
- Corey Davis (375)
- Alshon Jeffery (367)
- Nelson Agholor (283)
- DJ Chark Jr. (174)
- Curtis Samuel (115)
- Mike Williams (95)
- Jameson Williams (41)
How many of these guys were actual hits? Gallup, Agholor, and Chark did it once and were never useful fantasy assets any other year. Davis and Parker each did it once and not until their fourth and fifth years, respectively. Patterson did it once in his ninth season after he moved to running back. Golladay had two with the kingmaker, Matthew Stafford. We then learned Golladay was a product of Stafford when he left Detroit.
It is fair to say only Collins, Adams, and Jeffery have been massive hits. Collins broke out two years ago after dealing with a bad situation as a rookie. Samuel has been on the border of fantasy-relevant for most of his career, with one very good season. Pittman hasn’t been incredible, but with three seasons over 13.5 ppg, he counts.
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Even granting Samuel and Jameson Williams as part of this group gives us a total of six WRs we would want on our fantasy teams for multiple seasons. Six out of 95. That’s an incredible 93.6% bust rate for Day 1/2 WRs who do not reach 525 receiving yards as rookies.
Things Get Even Worse When We Lower the Threshold
It’s clear we want rookie wide receivers to reach 525 yards. But of the 14 outliers in the group, nearly all of them were toward the upper end. At the very least, they got kind of close.
When we drop the threshold to 250 receiving yards, we are left with only Chark, Samuel, and two Williamses. Out of 54 players who failed to reach 250 yards as rookies, we saw a 92.5% bust rate.
What Does This Tell Us About the 2023 and 2024 Rookie Classes?
Now that we’ve established the parameters, let’s apply them. There were 29 wide receivers selected over the first two days of the 2023 and 2024 NFL Drafts. Only 15 of them exceeded 525 receiving yards as rookies. That gives us 14 who did not.
We’ll start with the ones who would generate little debate. Based on what we have seen so far, it’s fair to say no one would argue against the following players being busts.
- Jonathan Mingo (418)
- Jalin Hyatt (373)
- Tre Tucker (331)
- Luke McCaffrey (168)
- John Metchie III (158)
- Jermaine Burton (107)
- Ja’Lynn Polk (87)
- Malachi Corley (16)
These players were mostly drafted in 2023 and have come nowhere close to being relevant fantasy assets in either of their two NFL seasons. But a couple from 2024 are safe to write off already.
Now, for the guys who, if you bring up in a debate, would either get someone to defend them or say we need to see more to draw a definitive conclusion.
- Xavier Legette (497)
- Jalen McMillan (461)
- Quentin Johnston (431)
- Ricky Pearsall (400)
- Marvin Mims (377)
- Adonai Mitchell (312)
- Cedric Tillman (224)
It was not planned this way, but it worked out that most of the guys who still have hope at least surpassed 250 receiving yards. Only Tillman did not.
If you used this data to blanket fade every WR who failed to reach 525 receiving yards as a rookie, you would have avoided wasting picks on Johnston and Mingo. None of the other guys even had a relevant ADP. Mims wound up being very useful late in the season, but he was a waiver wire pickup.
The main miss would have been Jameson Williams, who recorded over 1,000 receiving yards en route to averaging 14.2 ppg. Williams missed more than half of his rookie season recovering from an ACL tear. Then, in his sophomore year, he got off to a rocky start with a gambling suspension and never really got going.
Because of this data, I wanted no part of Williams, who easily had the highest ADP of every WR yet to break out, who failed to reach 525 yards as a rookie. I missed out on him as a result. I am perfectly fine with that.
JAMESON WILLIAMS. THIS GAME IS OFF THE RAILS.
📺: #WASvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/k3NjfxDSCY— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025
 This data set does not predict with a 100% success rate. It’s only 93.6%. I can live with missing out on the outlier 6.4%.
The 2024 rookie class does have more players with outlier potential. Legette got very close to the threshold. However, I am fully ready to write him off. The Carolina Panthers made a significant investment in the WR position, drafting Tetairoa McMillan at No. 8 overall. Plus, Legette was outplayed by rookie UDFA Jalen Coker.
Jalen McMillan was trapped behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but was able to post at least 16.7 fantasy points in each of his final five games of his rookie season. Since the Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka, the path for McMillan is very challenging. However, he did show enough to the point where I do believe he could be a moderate outlier if given the opportunity.
Johnston improved significantly as a sophomore, posting 11.7 ppg. However, he was heavily reliant on touchdowns, catching eight on just 55 receptions. He also scored 18% of his season total fantasy points in Week 18. He’s definitely better than the mega bust he looked like as a rookie, but I don’t see a consistent fantasy producer here.
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Ricky Pearsall deserves a second chance as a sophomore. He’s a former first-round pick whose rookie season got delayed due to getting shot. The data still suggests he won’t ever matter, especially since he was unable to command targets after returning to action. But he also won’t be expensive.
Mims scored 129 fantasy points as a sophomore. 41% of them came in Weeks 17 and 18. Do with that what you will.
I’m ready to write off Mitchell. Being stuck behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs didn’t help, but his inability to outplay and overtake Alec Pierce speaks volumes.
I also don’t see anything with Tillman. His elite three-week stretch from Weeks 7-9 feels very Travis Fulgham-y to me.
As you can see, though, it’s very easy to make excuses for players. However, history has shown that we shouldn’t. On a macro level, it is a good process to completely rule out every wide receiver who fails to reach 525 receiving yards as a rookie. Of course, you will miss some outliers. But recent data shows that you’d be correct 93.6% of the time.
If you’re in a dynasty league and still roster any of the players listed above, I strongly encourage you to trade them.
History has shown that the reason a WR fails to reach 525 yards does not matter, including injuries. If he doesn’t get there, he’s extremely unlikely to give us even a single season of 12-plus fantasy points per game.
Does that mean their odds of breaking out are 0%? Of course not. We know outliers exist in any data set.
Sometimes, strange things happen. Davante Adams looked out of place in the NFL over his first two seasons. He garnered a lot of criticism and was viewed by many as a player the Packers should give up on. Then, something clicked. He made improvements and is now a future Hall of Famer.
The mistake that fantasy managers make is overweighting a career arc like Adams’. Players like him are extremely rare and not worth chasing. For every Adams, there will be 100 Stephen Hills and Corey Colemans. Trust the data, and do not be afraid to cash out on a rookie WR who fails to reach 525 receiving yards.
