Should you draft Gus Edwards in fantasy football this year?

Gus Edwards has seen his fantasy value increase overnight -- should you draft him as his price in drafts also escalates exponentially?

Gus Edwards has split the opinion of fantasy football managers throughout this offseason. On one hand, the opportunity appeared to be there for him to step up, but equally, there was the expectation J.K. Dobbins would take the bulk of the extra carries. Now with Dobbins injured, should you be looking to take Edwards in your fantasy drafts?

Gus Edwards has been productive for the Ravens and fantasy managers

If we look at Edwards’ career statistics, he’s never seen more than 144 rushing attempts in a single season, but yet he has eclipsed 700 rushing yards in all three of his seasons. Throughout his career, he has averaged 5.2 yards per attempt and scored 10 rushing touchdowns.

His role in the passing game was limited in his first two seasons. However, there were signs in 2020 that the Ravens were expanding his role somewhat. Edwards saw 13 targets, catching 9 for 129 yards. In total, he averaged 5.6 yards per touch in 2020.

Edwards finished the season as the RB28. Of the 27 players who finished above him, only four had fewer carries, with none of them having fewer touches than Edwards. His return on a per-touch basis was similar to that of Derrick Henry.

What will happen in Baltimore’s offense without Dobbins?

The expectations initially are that Edwards will see a bump in his role. The Ravens may dip their toes into the post-NFL cut market for a veteran, adding experience to the backfield. Then again, they were willing to go into the season with Edwards (fourth-year back) and Dobbins (second-year back).

If the Ravens are happy with Edwards leading the line, he could step up to the 200+ touches many expected Dobbins to get, while Justice Hill sees the 140-150 we expected Edwards to have.

In the event they bring in competition for touches, Edwards could still see an elevation in his role. He would be more familiar with the blocking schemes and the option plays with Lamar Jackson.

Should you draft Gus Edwards in your fantasy league?

The answer to this question is going to come down to cost. Prior to the injury, Dobbins was being selected with an ADP of 25 in 0.5 PPR formats. Meanwhile, Edwards had an ADP of 93 as the RB37 off the board.

If Edwards rises to the same draft position as Dobbins, that feels too rich. Dobbins was a potential bust at his cost, and Edwards is supposedly the less talented of the two. Edwards’ fantasy outlook has certainly improved with this injury, but if the ADP goes higher than the likes of D’Andre Swift and Miles Sanders, the cost becomes too high.

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