As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy football values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Sean Tucker.
Sean Tucker’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
Let’s start with the negatives before we get to the positives. Tucker went undrafted. It goes without saying that’s not very good for his hopes of being a fantasy-relevant player.
For every Arian Foster and Austin Ekeler, there are literally hundreds who never matter. But Tucker is not your average UDFA running back.
While Tucker was probably a Day 3 pick anyway, going in the fourth or fifth round would’ve been much better than undrafted. The reason he went undrafted simultaneously provides hope and concern about his future.
Reportedly, NFL teams were scared away due to an undisclosed medical issue discovered at the Combine. On April 15, Tucker and his trainer posted that he’d been cleared, but details are scant as to what exactly he was cleared of or by whom.
The Athletic’s Bob McGinn indicated it might be an ongoing heart issue that could affect the rest of his career. If Tucker is indeed dealing with a long-term heart problem, it could derail his career before it even begins. That is an inherent risk in any NFL team or fantasy manager investing in Tucker.
With that said, if Tucker is able to play football, he’s proven he is quite good at it. College production is the most predictive indicator of NFL success. Tucker’s production profile is among the best in this class. For a UDFA, his production profile is one of the best of all time.
Tucker carried the ball 589 times for 3,182 yards and 27 touchdowns in his three years at Syracuse. And not only is Tucker a prolific rusher, but he’s a very competent pass catcher as well.
Tucker’s best season target share was his junior year at 14.6%. He caught 56 passes over his final 24 collegiate games.
If you looked at Tucker’s prospect profile as a whole and didn’t know anything about his medical condition, you would wonder how this guy went undrated. He ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at his pro day, putting his speed score in the 86th percentile. At 207 pounds, he’s only a couple of pounds lighter than the 210-pound threshold we look for in three-down backs. And Tucker is only 21 years old, coming out after just three years at college.
Of course, as a UDFA, he’s now facing an uphill battle to ever matter in the NFL. But if there were an ideal spot for him to be able to climb a depth chart, it’s in Tampa Bay.
After granting Leonard Fournette his release just one year after signing a three-year extension, the Bucs’ running back depth chart is Rachaad White, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Chase Edmonds. I would challenge anyone to find a weaker group of running backs.
In terms of pure talent, for my money, Tucker is already the best running back on the team. White had one of the most inefficient rookie seasons of all time. Vaughn is entering his fourth season and has 79 career carries. Edmonds flamed out on two different teams last year and is likely the Giovani Bernard replacement. For context, the only game Bernard played in last season was the Bucs’ meaningless Week 18 contest.
Sean Tucker’s Fantasy Ranking
If this medical issue is a nonfactor — and that’s a huge if — Tucker has a real chance to ascend this depth chart in training camp and the preseason. White will undoubtedly open the season as the RB1, but Tucker can easily leapfrog Vaughn and Edmonds. If Tucker opens the season as the RB2, he will see the field, which will give him a chance to ultimately overtake the overrated White.
I know I’ve painted an incredibly optimistic picture of Tucker. The most likely scenario is still that he never matters. After all, he’s a UDFA. And even when UDFAs smash as rookies, they never have job security. Remember how good Phillip Lindsay was? He’s now in the XFL. Remember James Robinson’s rookie year? He’s projected to be low on the Patriots’ depth chart — if he makes the team at all.
Always temper expectations when it comes to UDFAs. But with Tucker, you’re getting a UDFA with a far higher ceiling than most. And because he’s a UDFA, the price tag in rookie drafts will be cheap.
Tucker is currently the 3.06 in our latest dynasty rookie rankings. Third-round dynasty rookie picks rarely pan out. Tucker is absolutely worth the swing at his depressed ADP both in rookie drafts and dynasty startup drafts.
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