Seahawks WRs Fantasy Outlooks: Should You Draft DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett?

For a number of years, fantasy football managers have been able to count on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to provide for them, but the picture for the Seattle Seahawks is now changing.

Could Year 2 of Jaxon Smith-Njigba turn the ripples of disturbances into waves of crashing fantasy value for Metcalf and Lockett?

Let’s take a look at the fantasy outlook for Metcalf, Smith-Njigba, and Lockett to see whether there is enough opportunity in Seattle to provide value for all three.

DK Metcalf’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR Fantasy Points: 226.8 (152.3 non-PPR)
• Receptions: 74.5
• Receiving Yards: 1013.5
• Receiving TDs: 8.4

The Cinderella story for Geno Smith appeared to strike midnight at some point over the 2023 season, with his passing yards and touchdowns both regressing by a notable margin. The struggles of the Seahawks’ passing game combined with the arrival of Smith-Njigba didn’t exactly do Metcalf any favors as a fantasy producer in 2023.

Metcalf’s targets (119) and receptions (66) were both the lowest marks we’ve seen from him since his rookie year in 2019. His fantasy finish of WR21 in full-PPR formats was the lowest since his rookie year, but it’s been trending in that direction for a fourth consecutive year.

Metcalf’s Fantasy Finishes in Full-PPR Formats Since 2020:

• 2020: WR7
• 2021: WR14
• 2022: WR16
• 2023: WR21

Metcalf’s drop in targets from 2022 to 2023 is probably the biggest concern on his fantasy profile, going from 141 to 119 with JSN’s arrival and Smith’s struggles under center. For those who are wondering, that’s a drop from a 25.5% target share to 22.9%. Although it’s not a meteoric type of descent, it’s certainly enough to have an impact on Metcalf’s fantasy production.

The ADP study of Metcalf heading into the 2024 season is among the most interesting of the WR position. He’s currently going at No. 43 overall in the middle of Round 4 as the WR21 off the board. For some additional context, he hasn’t finished outside the top 21 at his position for the last four seasons.

Unfortunately, Metcalf’s quality competition for targets and less-than-ideal QB play for an outside vertical weapon makes it feel like he’s more likely to play closer to his fantasy floor than his ceiling this coming season.

Metcalf is still an excellent wide receiver who has provided numbers similar to Mike Evans since emerging as a full-time starter in 2020. He’s appropriately priced in the middle rounds and gives fantasy managers a reliable WR2 option that can occasionally produce explosively.

– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR Fantasy Points: 192.1 (111.3 non-PPR)
• Receptions: 80.8
• Receiving Yards: 805.4
• Receiving TDs: 5.1

Whether JSN is a worthwhile pick at his ADP comes down to whether you believe in his ability to overtake Lockett as the Seahawks’ WR2. Lockett isn’t about to just disappear. However, Smith-Njigba needs to be able to prove to Geno Smith and the Seahawks coaches that he deserves to be targeted ahead of the 32-year-old WR.

The entire team would also benefit from Smith playing more like he did two years ago. JSN ran 64.3% of his routes from the slot last season. He doesn’t really overlap with Lockett or Metcalf. If Smith plays better, there’s a world where Metcalf can be a fantasy WR2 while both Lockett and JSN are WR3s.

Hoping your late-round pick becomes a WR3 is not exactly what we want in fantasy, though. We need more upside than that, and I do believe JSN is capable of providing top-18 numbers if things break right.

Historically, sophomore WRs have been very good investments. More recently, we’ve been forced to pay for natural progression in advance. That’s not the case with Smith-Njigba. JSN carries a WR46 ADP, No. 103 overall. I have him ranked at WR43. That late in drafts, small differences in ranking are largely meaningless. It comes down to personal preference.

There are definitely reasons to be pessimistic about what he can do. However, I am more inclined to take a chance on a 22-year-old WR who is just one year removed from being viewed as the most talented wide receiver of his rookie class.

– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst

Tyler Lockett’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR Fantasy Points: 160.8 (105.2 non-PPR)
• Receptions: 55.6
• Receiving Yards: 732.8
• Receiving TDs: 5.2

Lockett’s streak of four straight seasons with 1,000+ yards receiving and 8+ TDs came to an end last year with his 79 receptions for 894 yards and five scores on 122 targets, which resulted in a WR32 finish in full-PPR formats — his lowest mark since 2017. This drop in production has fantasy managers wondering what exactly went wrong last year.

For starters, the addition of a talented first-round receiver who does his best work out of the slot certainly didn’t help matters. Ironically enough, Lockett saw his lowest alignment percentage from the slot since 2016 — which speaks to Smith-Njigba’s impact on his role in this offense.

Lockett’s current ADP sits at No. 129 overall in the 11th round as the WR50 off the board. This means he is currently being drafted after players like Jameson Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., and Courtland Sutton at his own position.

I understand Lockett was definitely impacted by the addition of Smith-Njigba last year, but this feels like a bit of a steep fall for a player who was still a productive and reliable fantasy option in 2023.

Naturally, an aging, smaller receiver competing with younger and very talented pass catchers for targets isn’t exactly an ideal scenario for projecting a return to Lockett’s previous top-15 fantasy WR production this year. But his being selected outside of the top 50 at the position feels a bit harsh.

Lockett may be trending in the wrong direction, but he presents a nice draft-day value as a viable Flex option for your fantasy roster in 2024.

– Tate