Is Saquon Barkley due for a bounce-back season in 2020?

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley burst onto the scene during his 2018 rookie season. Barkley put up over 2,000 all-purpose yards that season, playing in all 16 regular-season games and establishing himself as the most talented running this side of Christian McCaffrey. Just when the former Penn State Nittany Lions star looked to be on the precipice of becoming a fantasy football darling, injuries and inconsistent quarterback play -here’s looking at you, Daniel Jones- turned a promising campaign into a sophomore slump. The question now is, what can we expect from the former 2nd overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft? Will Barkley emerge as the MVP type talent we all thought he could be prior to last season, and what will his touchdown projection look like in 2020?

Saquon Barkley – MVP?

There are currently three widely available betting props involving Barkley at this point where we are still months away from actual NFL football. The first prop is the biggest long-shot, although also the one that would subsequently indicate Big Blue nation was likely heading for the 2020 NFL postseason. The Saquon Barkley consensus Most Valuable Player odds are currently averaging at about +6500. To give you an idea of just how long those odds are, Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite at +500 while reigning MVP Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens is next in line at +575.

Barkley would not only need to put up a monstrous season statistically and lead the Giants to the postseason, but he would likely need the league’s top quarterbacks to all refrain from having standout years as well. After all, this is historically a signal caller’s award to win, with Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season serving as the only non-quarterback MVP of the last 14 years. Even the most die-hard New York Giants fan would be hard-pressed to lay anything more than a few dollars down on Saquon Barkley to win the Most Valuable Player at those odds taking all the other factors into consideration.

Total rushing and receiving yards

The next available Barkley prop involves the 2020 Regular Season Total for rushing yards and receiving yards. The current combined yardage amount is projected at 1,749.5 yards. While reaching this number would require Barkley to surpass last year’s total of 1441 by more than 300 yards, it is nearly 400 fewer yards than he racked up during his magical rookie season. The hope for both Barkley and Giants fans has to be that the team uses it’s top-five draft pick on a stud offensive lineman, helping both Barkley and Daniel Jones to stay upright in the backfield.

The optimist in me wants to point out that Barkley only played in 13 games last season and that if he remains healthy for the duration of the regular season, this total is well within reach. The pessimist in me worries about Barkley’s effectiveness in pass protection and whether that might have an impact on his total number of snaps in obvious passing situations. The realist in me knows that expecting any running back to be a three-down workhorse back and avoid missing games due to injury is nearly unheard of at this point. I would lean to the Under 1,749.5 yards on this prop, although I will probably just stay away.

Saquon Barkley’s projected number of touchdowns

There is one prop bet involving Barkley that I am eager to grab, however. FanDuel currently has a Barkley touchdown projection of 11.5 with the juice at -112 in both directions. The odds on that combined touchdown prop seem almost too good to be true to me. Barkley is an explosive, versatile back with the ability to break away for long touchdowns in the blink of an eye. Barkley reached the end zone on only eight occasions last year after hitting pay dirt for 15 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2018. I suspect Barkley easily surpasses the disappointing six ground scores from last year and that his vision and elusiveness in the open field will lead to a few longer touchdown receptions.

Last season seven NFL players scored 12 or more total touchdowns, and all of them were running backs. In 2018, a staggering thirteen players reached the 12 touchdown mark, with ten of those players being running backs. Essentially, if Barkley returns in year three and performs as the top five running back we all assume he is talent-wise, the touchdown total should eclipse the 11.5 odds plateau set at this moment. With any individual player prop, injury could derail what initially seems like tremendous value. That said, I think the odds on this prop should be closer to 14 than 12, and therefore I am strongly recommending a one unit play on the over 11.5 total touchdowns for Barkley in 2020.

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