The San Francisco 49ers are undergoing a massive change for the 2022 NFL season as quarterback Trey Lance takes over the offense. The 49ers are hoping the second-year passer gives them a better chance to win the Super Bowl. Let’s examine the 49ers’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and the 49ers’ odds to win the NFC West, NFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 2 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
San Francisco 49ers record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for 11 of the 49ers’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, San Francisco is projected as favorites in six games, underdogs in four, and a push in one. If their first 11 games of the season match those predictions, the 49ers will have a 6-4-1 record following Week 12 of the 2022 campaign.
The 2021 49ers were only a few plays away from competing for a Super Bowl against the Cincinnati Bengals. Their 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Conference Championship came down to the final minutes. The Rams went ahead with 1:46 left on the clock, and Jimmy Garoppolo threw an interception on his third pass of the following drive.
That pass was likely the last of Garoppolo’s career with the franchise. Head coach Kyle Shanahan went so far as to thank Garoppolo for his time in San Francisco and handing the job to Lance as training camp began. There’s some understandable trepidation around the 49ers’ betting odds, considering Lance is an unknown presence.
Predicted to finish second in the NFC West, the 49ers are still a strong playoff contender. They have a terrific defense that will allow them to hang into most games. Their core of offensive playmakers may need to carry Lance when he struggles.
49ers odds, picks, and props
Now that we know the football bets and sportsbooks’ prediction for the 49ers on a week-by-week basis, let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.
- 49ers win total: 10 (over +100, under -120)
- 49ers to finish 2nd in NFC West: +190
- NFC West winner: +150
- NFC winner: +750
- Super Bowl winner: +1600
The 49ers may have changed out a familiar cog in their offensive engine, but there’s no denying the physical upside of Lance could change the game for the franchise. Oddsmakers have aggressively set San Francisco’s win line and taken value out of their team prop picks. Don’t forget they play in the NFC West with the defending champion Los Angeles Rams.
The 49ers may have beaten the Rams twice in the regular season in 2021, but they ultimately failed to complete the sweep. The Arizona Cardinals are also lurking. With a better bout of injury luck, the Cardinals may have won the division and No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Shanahan and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans are two of the best coaches in the league. They will maximize the talent they have each year. If Lance can have a baseline of consistency and still bring the splashy plays that Garoppolo lacked, this will be an NFC powerhouse.
San Francisco’s health issues need to be favorable. In 2021, they lost six games of running back Elijah Mitchell and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, three games of tight end George Kittle, and 16 games of cornerback Jason Verrett. Depth is always tested, but some losses are bigger than others.
49ers MVP odds and player props
The 49ers have a handful of superstars. Lance’s potential looms large, but we know we’ll get All-Pro caliber seasons from star receiver Deebo Samuel, linebacker Fred Warner, and edge-rusher Nick Bosa. These are their core three playmakers who cannot be replaced under any circumstances.
It’s a longshot any would win MVP, but each may be in play for other major awards. We’ve also listed our top 49ers player prop bets below.
- MVP
Trey Lance 40-to-1 - Defensive Player of the Year
Nick Bosa +1500 - Offensive Player of the Year
Deebo Samuel +1000 - Trey Lance regular-season passing yards
Over/Under 3,500.5 (over +110, under -135) - Trey Lance regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 500.5 (over -150, under +115) - Elijah Mitchell regular-season rushing touchdowns
Over/Under 950.5 (over -110, under -120) - Deebo Samuel regular-season receiving yards
Over/Under 950.5 (-115) - Nick Bosa regular-season sacks
Over/Under 11.25 (over -105, under -125)
We have a wealth of player prop betting odds available to us. The inclusion of Lance can change the functionality of the offense, but it’s unlikely to be a major overhaul. Shanahan should ease Lance into an offense that accentuates his strengths as often as possible, but that strategy may considerably cut into the volume of opportunities his playmakers see.
That being said, Bosa, Samuel, and Mitchell have health concerns that have contributed to their low lines. Along with Lance’s development, these prop picks carry real risk. The 49ers are excellent at overcoming setbacks but have amassed several notable talents with injury risks.
Lance’s passing props are very conservative for a 17-game starter but not unprecedented. Basically, oddsmakers have set his passing yards and touchdowns to match Jalen Hurts’ 2021 campaign. Hurts was one of 14 starting quarterbacks who threw for fewer than 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Let’s dive into the best overall prop and team betting picks for the upcoming season.
49ers 2022 picks
Let’s start with the 49ers’ season outlook. This is a deeply talented team that has championship potential. They could have improved at their two biggest positions of need: quarterback and cornerback. Signing veteran Chardarius Ward was a notable acquisition.
The competition will be steep for the 49ers, and their win total was aggressively set. They have the 10th-most difficult schedule in the NFL. Going over 10 wins would be an impressive accomplishment I’m not willing to bet on.
The big change at quarterback and lack of depth at key positions has me slotting the 49ers behind the Rams. I think they’ll still edge out the Cardinals, so if we push the win total, we can still find great value as they finish in second place.
I don’t see this team emerging as the NFC winner or Super Bowl winner despite their headlining talent. There’s a ton of experience within the conference, and the 49ers are incredibly young and brittle for me to bet on.
1u: 49ers under 10 wins (-120)
1u: 49ers to finish second in NFC West (+190)
Player props
We’ll be able to get more significant action on the 49ers player prop bets because they’re more reasonably set totals if we’re assuming availability for each player. Let’s start with Lance’s passing and rushing totals.
The 49ers ran the ball more than all but three teams in 2021. With Lance under center, that number will rise. Even if it’s not designed, having a quarterback willing to run will increase that total somewhat. This will have a cascading effect.
While Garoppolo easily cleared the required yards per game and total of Lance’s 3,500.5 yard prop, Lance will fall more in line with Hurts and the rest of the young quarterbacks. He’s a relatively safe under because the roller coaster that every second-year passer faces leads to ugly games with 200 or fewer yards.
But I’m more optimistic he’ll clear 500.5 rushing yards. Lance had 168 yards on 38 attempts in six games played. Only three of those games featured extended playing time. Thirty-one of those carries came in those games, and he was difficult for defenses to stop. Shanahan must give Lance free reign to run and create with his legs for this offense to ascend.
Mitchell’s, Samuel’s, and Bosa’s totals are conservatively set only for injuries. These are some of the best player lines we’ve seen on a team since the books opened their props. As a reminder, Mitchell totaled 963 yards in 11 games, and Samuel had 1,405 receiving yards in 16 games in 2021.
Lance’s rushing gravity will only help Mitchell’s production. Mitchell could lead the NFL in yards per carry this season. Watch for him to be the bell cow for as long as his body can handle the role.
Bosa, one of the most dominant pass rushers in the NFL, will again be the primary threat on this defensive line. Ryans’ excellent scheme will help overcome the lack of a real complementary rusher to keep Bosa from double teams. He had 15 1/2 sacks in 2021 after posting nine in his rookie season and subsequently missing most of 2020.
1u: Lance under 3500.5 passing yards (-135)
1u: Lance over 500.5 rushing yards (-150)
1u: Mitchell over 950.5 rushing yards (-110)
1u: Samuel over 950.5 receiving yards (-115)
1u: Bosa over 11.25 sacks (-105)