Denver Broncos running back Samaje Perine displayed quite the high ceiling while filling in for an injured Joe Mixon last season. Now poised for the same role behind an injured Javonte Williams, could Perine be a value this season? What is his fantasy football projection for 2023?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Samaje Perine’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Once upon a time, a rookie Perine was given the opportunity to prove he was the Washington Commanders’ long-term answer at running back. He failed, leading to his release two years later.
Perine found his way to the Bengals, where he’s spent the past four years not only backing up Mixon but rehabilitating his career. He managed to establish himself as the Bengals’ primary passing-down back, increasing his role each of the past three seasons.
Last year, Perine earned a career-best 8.6% target share. He caught 38 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns.
Although Perine averaged 8.9 PPR fantasy points per game, he never actually had standalone fantasy value. The bulk of that production came in Weeks 11-13 when Perine replaced an injured Mixon. He scored 30.2, 19.3, and 21.5 fantasy points in those three weeks.
All of this is to say Perine has significantly improved as a player since his time in Washington and established himself as someone capable of leading a backfield, if necessary.
Should You Draft Samaje Perine This Year?
Perine now finds himself in Denver. Regardless of Williams’ health, Perine was always going to have a role. In fact, his chances of having standalone value in Denver are greater than they were in Cincinnati. We’ve never seen Williams with a backfield to himself.
The greater appeal with Perine is the possibility he operates as not only the lead back but a true three-down RB while Williams recovers from his devastating knee injury.
We’ve seen with guys like J.K. Dobbins, Michael Gallup, and Odell Beckham Jr. that not all knee injuries are created equal. Players aren’t always ready for Week 1. It often takes them a few weeks to get back on the field and even longer to get back to full strength.
[the_ad_group id=”67285″]
Williams could very well miss the first few weeks of the season and then experience a ramp-up period where he is eased into action. Perine could have a longer-than-expected stint as the Broncos’ starter.
Furthermore, if Perine plays well, there’s no guarantee the Broncos just give Williams the lead job back. This could stay 60/40 in Perine’s favor the entire season.
Sean Payton also has quite the history of producing two fantasy-relevant running backs. He was doing it even before all the cool kids were doing it.
The Saints had Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, Thomas and Reggie Bush, Thomas and Mark Ingram, and Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Given Payton’s history of using two backs effectively, it stands to reason both Williams and Perine could be top-24 fantasy backs.
Perine’s ADP is currently RB39, No. 112 overall. Even if Williams is fully healthy for Week 1, that would be put Perine near his floor. As a pure handcuff, knowing his upside as a starter if he were to get the opportunity, that price is worth it.
Yet, Perine is not a pure handcuff. He projects to see at least 8-10 touches a game when Williams is fully healthy, and probably even more. Essentially, Perine is all reward and very little risk.
Perine is currently my RB33, so I am quite a bit above the consensus here. He is someone I have been pounding the table for fantasy managers to take in early drafts for months.
Of course, there is a point in which his cost will become too high to the point where it’s no longer worth it. However, with news surrounding Williams’ knee increasingly positive, that is only going to depress Perine’s value further. That makes him even more desirable. I am targeting Perine in every fantasy draft.
