Week 10 is here, and as always, there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 10 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (at JAX)
Aaron Jones has one of the more unique profiles among running backs. On one hand, he’s gained just 122 yards on 40 carries over the past two weeks, both in favorable matchups (Rams and Colts). On the other, he has a catch of 14+ yards in seven straight games and has at least four red-zone touches in five of his past seven games.
The Jaguars are the second-worst red-zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 69.7% of trips, and that is more than enough to start Jones with confidence. That said, I want it on record that I still have questions about this Vikings team; if those concerns come through, Jones’ efficiency struggles could prove to be costly when your league is on the line.
- Weeks 1-7: 7.6% over expectation
- Weeks 8-9: 35% below expectation
Alvin Kamara | NO (vs. ATL)
Alvin Kamara picked up 20 yards on New Orleans’ first offensive play last week and now has four top-10 finishes this season. The Saints came up short in the first meeting with the Falcons, but it wasn’t due to a lack of getting Kamara involved (26 touches for 119 yards and a touchdown).
I’ll never project that level of usage for a back, but it’s fair to say that Kamara will be one of the league leaders in total touches this week; that makes him a starter in all formats, even if you share the efficiency concerns that I have.
A running back has carried the rock 10+ times while seeing 8+ targets in consecutive games just three times this season:
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-6)
- De’Von Achane (Weeks 8-9)
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 8-9)
The Saints are running out of options and Kamara is the type of talent that will turn volume into fantasy production, even if it’s by way of checkdowns in bulk.
Antonio Gibson | NE (at CHI)
Week 9 saw Antonio Gibson play a season-low 12.3% of New England’s offensive snaps, and he’s well off of the Flex radar at this point with no more than five touches in three straight games.
I’m not sold he’s a very valuable handcuff, as I think this offense would put more on Drake Maye’s shoulders instead of putting significant work in front of Gibson should Rhamondre Stevenson get hurt. That thought process puts him on the chopping block if you find yourself desperate for Flex options as we approach these bye-heavy weeks.
Austin Ekeler | WAS (vs. PIT)
Austin Ekeler assumed the lead role in the Week 9 win over the Giants with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined, and that meant 14 touches. The veteran back spent this summer saying that he wasn’t ready to handle a significant workload, which is why he moved on from the Chargers.
The production was there in a good matchup (83 yards and a touchdown), but if 14 touches is the absolute ceiling, I’m going to have a hard time ranking him as a legitimate Flex option when Robinson is active (expected to be the case this season).
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been impressed with how hard Ekeler has run this season. But without average volume in an offense that has a mobile quarterback, I’m not comfortable counting on this profile. Assuming Robinson checks all medical boxes this week, Ekeler is going to be in the RB30 fringe, and that’s only a starter in some spots.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (at NO)
Bijan Robinson has four straight RB1 finishes, proving worthy of all of the expectations we’ve placed upon him. Unlike last season, the Falcons seem to appreciate what they have in their RB1. Their first three scripted plays last week:
- Nine-yard Robinson rush
- Five-yard Robinson rush
- One-yard Robinson reception
In the Week 4 win over the Saints, Atlanta ran rarely but effectively (15 attempts for 88 yards, 5.9 yards per carry), continuing a recent trend of Robinson having his way with the NFC South.
Production relative to expectation, divisional games:
- Week 18, 2023 at New Orleans Saints: +27.8%
- Week 4, 2024 vs. New Orleans Saints: +26.9%
- Week 5, 2024 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2%
- Week 6, 2024 at Carolina Panthers: +69.8%
- Week 8, 2024 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +36.9%
Robinson is a Tier 1 running back for me in Week 10 and for the remainder of the season in an Atlanta offense that I trust week over week.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (at ARI)
Braelon Allen’s run of production early in the season now feels like a lifetime ago. The explosive rookie entered Week 9 with a 20.5-yard rushing yard prop and never once threatened to surpass that number as he failed to clear five carries for the fourth time in his past five games. For the season, he’s been on the field for 26.2% of New York’s offensive snaps, not yet clearing 36% in a game.
It’s plenty fine to like the talent and roster the kid (14 more routes than rush attempts this season), but understand that you’re doing it as a high-end handcuff and not a player with a path to stand-alone value barring an injury to Breece Hall.
Breece Hall | NYJ (at ARI)
For the first time since Oct. 2022, Breece Hall had 15 carries in consecutive games. We’ve seen a handful of running backs break out in a big way this season, and while Hall isn’t yet on that list (4.0 yards per carry this season with just one score over the past six weeks), I very much think it’s coming.
- September: 5.8% of carries gained 10+ yards
- October: 17.1% of carries gained 10+ yards
It’s coming. I continue to be impressed with New York’s willingness to use him as a legitimate route runner (his aDOT is up to 1.0 from -0.5 last season, and even that only reflects targets — he’s running downfield far more than he did last season); with the Braelon Allen experiment seemingly over in terms of a committee threat, Hall’s best days of 2024 are likely ahead of him.
You’re playing Hall every week no matter what I say, but I think you should be excited about what he can bring to the table over the final two months of the season.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. PIT)
A nagging hamstring injury cost Brian Robinson Jr. Week 9 after he wasn’t comfortable enough to suit up following pregame warmups. It was his second missed game of the season and the ninth of his young career.
We’ve seen hamstring injuries hinder the production of fantasy assets across the league this season, which makes this a situation to monitor carefully. Robinson has been productive enough to be considered a lineup staple (six top-25 finishes at the position this season) with volume (15+ touches in five of six healthy games, with the lone exception being a 33-point blowout of the Panthers, a game script that is unlikely to take place this week) driving the bus.
This pretty clearly isn’t a good matchup. Trying to gain yards opposite of a Watt is never an enjoyable way to spend a Sunday.
Nevertheless, Pittsburgh did allow a running back to clear 20 PPR points (Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Breece Hall) in each of its past two games. That duo produced 39.3% over fantasy expectation, giving me hope that this backfield can have some success, but it won’t be in the form of Robinson as he was ruled OUT after Friday’s practice.
Bucky Irving | TB (vs. SF)
I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to trying to make Bucky Irving happen, and Week 9 was a sobering reminder that we just aren’t there yet (10 touches for 34 yards). The rookie has been on the field for under 42% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps in each of the past three weeks, a role that is going to make it hard to return RB2 value, no matter how talented we think he is.
The 49ers’ defense isn’t as good as they were in many areas this season, but they are allowing 18.5% fewer yards per carry after contact to running backs. That’s a problem as that is where Irving is going to have to separate himself — Rachaad White isn’t a perfect back by any means, but he’s going to remain involved in the passing game for the remainder of the season.
It was White with the seven-yard touchdown run on Monday night — if Irving can show enough in the coming weeks to take over that role, he can force his way into the Flex lock conversation. But for now, he’s a situational play, checking in at RB30 in my current Week 10 rankings.
Christian McCaffrey | SF (at TB)
Is it time? Will the industry-wide nightmare of not having Christian McCaffrey in our lives finally end on Sunday?
All signs point that way, and I’m operating under that assumption until I have reason not to. We can agree that Jordan Mason (three RB1 finishes, 5.1 yards per catch, and 7.2 yards per target) has been great, right?
Consider this: Mason’s expected PPR fantasy points per game this season is only 66.8% of what McCaffrey posted a season ago. If you want to be conservative with CMC in his season debut, go ahead and drop him down in your weekly rankings.
Maybe all the way down to RB5.
It’s difficult to do much more than that. McCaffrey is a unique talent in an offense built around his versatility. If you’ve waited nine weeks to have your first-round pick active, I can’t imagine a world in which you’re waiting to lock him into your lineup.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (vs. NE)
D’Andre Swift’s Chicago career got off to a slow start, but he has four RB1 finishes this season and has been a top-20 producer at the position in each of his past five (all of which he either has four catches or a 35-yard gain in).
The Bears dealt away Khalil Herbert on Tuesday and are fully committed to Swift as their bellcow, a role that is going to land him as a fantasy starter every week. Just how high he can climb in the ranks will depend on Caleb Williams’ development, but that’s splitting hairs — you’re playing him and loving every bit of the role he’s locked into.
David Montgomery | DET (at HOU)
David Montgomery has finished outside of the top 24 running backs just once this season and is coming off of his highest snap share of the season (58.2% in Lambeau with it raining sideways). I don’t think the uptick in playing time is anything to read into as the Lions play almost exclusively in weatherproof games, but his role as the drive finisher in one of the best offenses in the league has created a floor that few can match.
The Texans own the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, making them a poor candidate to slow down the machine that is the Lions (for people in my generation, that remains a weird sentence to type).
De’Von Achane | MIA (at LAR)
If you extend De’Von Achane’s numbers from the four Tua Tagovailoa starts for a full season, all you get is 2,266 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns.
No big deal.
He’s been a top-three running back in both of those games, and the creativity that made him special last season was on full display last week as Miami was able to get him a screen pass in the red zone, something that feels like cheating. He had a touchdown run in the fourth quarter that I thought showed some maturity as a runner by way of patience. That could result in him leveling up further if that’s at all possible.
Achane is on the fast track to paying off what you paid for him this summer and potentially even more come the fantasy postseason.
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL (vs. PHI)
Disciplinary actions resulted in Ezekiel Elliott being left home last week as Dallas traveled to Atlanta, likely saving you from yourself if you were considering Flexing the veteran running back for reasons unknown.
Rarely is decline linear, but Elliott’s profile makes the mathematically inclined pretty happy:
- 2021: 66% snap share, 1% production over expectations
- 2022: 54.6% snap share, 0.7% production below expectations
- 2023: 51.3% snap share, 10.6% production below expectations
- 2024: 34.3% snap share, 13.4% production below expectations
The ‘Boys play their first of two November games against a top-10 red-zone defense this week, so even if you’re justifying holding ‘Zeke due to his role in close, you’re in trouble.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at HOU)
Jahmyr Gibbs is producing despite not flashing the versatility we thought he’d need next to David Montgomery — the second-year back has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past six games.
Weirdly, I’d spin the lack of passing game work as a positive looking forward, as it is a skill we know he has access to. Even without that to supplement his production, Gibbs has been a top-22 running back in every game this season, a run that includes three top-10 finishes.
Gibbs has scored five times in his past five games, and I think we get a sneak peek at the versatility that we believe he has in his bag. The Texans are the fourth-best run defense in terms of success rate against running backs this season. If the Lions unlock him this week, there’s no telling the type of run he can have down the stretch for fantasy teams this winter.
James Conner | ARI (vs. NYJ)
James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful — his PPR fantasy points per touch are pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career), and this is still a player who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.
That said, it’s OK to be bullish in the short term and bearish long term. Conner has been a top-20 running back in five of his past six games, and I like his chances of continuing that trend with the Jets allowing 45.6% of yards to come on the ground, the highest rate in the league.
You’re starting him at full strength and feeling good about it, though I’d want to have depth behind him for the stretch run (even if it’s not Trey Benson).
James Cook | BUF (at IND)
James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards — he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
As scary as that profile is, I’m not the least bit nervous about this week against a Colts defense that ranks 27th against running backs after contact and 29th in RB rushing yards per game. Through nine weeks, Cook is the third most efficient running back when compared against expectations (Derrick Henry leading the charge with Jahmyr Gibbs second) and grades out as an RB1 for me this week.
Javonte Williams | DEN (at KC)
Jaleel McLaughlin got Denver’s first carry last week, but Javonte Williams held an 11-4 edge the rest of the way and continues to hold the label of the primary ball carrier in Denver.
Reasonable minds can disagree on the value of such a role, but it’s his, and that much we can feel confident in for Week 10. The Chiefs own an elite run defense by any measure, and their offense always has the potential to force opponents into a one-dimensional script.
Chiefs’ run defense marks, 2024:
- Second in EPA
- Second in yards per carry before contact
- First in yards per carry after contact
- First in success rate
In his most recent game against the Chiefs, Williams led the Broncos to the upset win with 98 yards and a touchdown. Now, it did take him 30 touches to get there, but still. I’m on record with picking Denver to put an end to the undefeated season this week, and if you’re with me on the front, you’re likely to take a more optimistic outlook for Williams this week.
Williams is a Flex option that I probably like more than you. I’d personally play him over a Calvin Ridley or Michael Pittman Jr.
Jaylen Warren | PIT (at WAS)
It feels like we’ve been asking the Steelers to feature their most explosive back for years, and they’ve finally listened — it just happens to be Najee Harris.
Jaylen Warren has yet to clear a 50% snap share in a game this season. Without a 20-yard gain on his 2024 résumé, what motivation does this team have to lean on him coming out of the bye?
This Pittsburgh offense is moving in the right direction under Russell Wilson, and that optimism requires Warren to stay on rosters as a handcuff to Harris. However, expecting him to be on the Flex radar at any point in the short term is far more optimistic than I am willing to be.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (at LAR)
Whether or not the Dolphins will extend their talented rookie as this season progresses is something to watch, but in terms of what we can project with confidence, there’s no way to justify considering him anything more than a low-end lineup stash.
Jaylen Wright played just 15% of the snaps last week and, even with various injuries to the skill position players in Miami, hasn’t reached a 34% snap share in six of seven games. His ceiling through nine weeks is RB34, and ranking him inside the top 40 is a leap of faith, let alone putting him near the Flex conversation.
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (vs. TEN)
I think I’ve written regression notes in J.K. Dobbins’ section of this novel for a month straight, and I’m not going to stop now. In targeting a fantasy contributor at the running back position, I need a few basic boxes checked.
- Role
- Team support
- Versatility
- Matchup
I’m not greedy; I don’t need all of them. I want a minimum of two, though, and with each passing week, I get less and less sure about Dobbins’ profile. The role is there, sure, I’ll give you that, even with the Chargers opening up things a bit. But everything else?
Over the past three games, Dobbins has seen his yards per carry before contact drop by 69.6%, and that’s a tough way to make a living if your name isn’t Derrick Henry.
Pass-catching has never been a true strength of his. While he has caught multiple passes in six straight, an average of 4.5 yards per target isn’t symbolic of elite upside.
As for the matchup, the Titans are fourth-best in defending running backs in terms of both yards per carry and first-down rate. It’s easy to look at Dobbins’ overall numbers and lock him in, but he’s more of a low-end RB2 for me that carries just as much risk as reward.
Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. DET)
For running backs like Joe Mixon, we know there is risk involved. He has over 2,000 career touches and joined a new franchise this offseason after spending his first seven years with the same one. In these spots, we usually settle for quality or quantity for touches and go our merry way with low-end RB2 production.
That’s not at all the case here. Since returning from injury …
- Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectations
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectations
- Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectations
- Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectations
Mixon has found paydirt in all four of those games. Mixon has a 20+ yard rush in all four of those games. Mixon has cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.
He’s been great, and I think he will continue it through this week as the Texans’ best defense against the potent Lions might be their run game’s ability to keep Houston’s offense on the sidelines. I don’t mean to be a wet blanket, but I do want to provide some words of caution, and you can do with it what you’d like.
All of these fireworks have come with Nico Collins (hamstring) on the shelf. It’s also worth noting that all age cliffs work differently. Last season, we saw Mixon average just 3.5 yards per carry from Weeks 12-17. I’m not calling that predictive, but it is worth keeping an eye on – his yards per carry after contact declined by 19.6% over that stretch compared to the first 11 weeks of the season.
Be happy with what he has given you, and play him with confidence this weekend, but be careful.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs. BUF)
Jonathan Taylor very much underwhelmed in a matchup that seemed gettable with an aggressive Vikings defense on the other sideline. Failing to reach 60 scrimmage yards in a close game isn’t what we expect from Taylor, but I feel strongly that the poor week was an outlier and not the rule moving forward.
Even in a bad performance where his offensive line was dominated, Taylor gained yardage on every single carry. He’s one of the most talented backs in the league, and that gives him the potential to produce against anyone, including the seventh-best red-zone defense in the NFL (Bills).
That said, Taylor’s path to elite production is going to be cloudy until this passing game demands respect. In 2022, he ran against a loaded box on just 23.4% of his carries. That number rose to 27.2% in 2023 and is up to 31.4% through nine weeks this season.
Taylor is a starter every single week in all formats. However, if he’s going to live up to the league-winning upside that I believe he has, Flacco is going to have to prove capable of moving the chains.
Jordan Mason | SF (at TB)
It’s not you, Jordan, it’s me.
And by “me,” I mean Christian McCaffrey. Jordan Mason has been about as good as fantasy managers could have possibly hoped for (17-game pace: 1,639 yards from scrimmage), but for a team with Super Bowl aspirations and some early season struggles to overcome as we begin the second half of the season, he’s set to transition to an accent piece of furniture as opposed to the big-screen TV in which the entire room is positioned around.
Could there be a ramp-up period this week that allows Mason to hold onto a Flex-worthy role? It’s certainly possible, but your backfield depth would have to be awfully limited to bet against McCaffrey in this capacity.
Julius Chestnut | TEN (at LAC)
There was a groundswell around Julius Chestnut ahead of Week 9 with Tyjae Spears (hamstring) and Tony Pollard (foot) both banged up. The idea made sense in an offense that would prefer not to throw the ball in a significant way, but the Titans told us everything we needed to know by loading up Pollard with 28 carries (31 touches) instead of giving Spears’ usage to a secondary option.
No harm no foul if you added Chestnut last week with the hopes of improving your backfield depth. The move made sense when you made it and moving on a week later makes just as much sense.
Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. DEN)
The Kareem Hunt situation is a good example of listening to what the team is telling us. The veteran back was limited in practice ahead of Week 9, and yet, the Chiefs loaded him up with 27 carries in the overtime win over the Bucs.
What are they telling us? Well, it’s that they are willing to ride Hunt into the ground to earn wins now while they build out their optimal postseason roster.
Over the past month, Kansas City’s RB1 is on a 413-carry pace. This is a team that is racking up wins, and I think they understand that their current and future offense aren’t the same. So what’s the harm in burning out Hunt now?
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport broke news ahead of Week 9 that Isiah Pacheco (broken fibula) hopes to return late in November, a timeline that makes sense for a team that will want to ramp him up in their pursuit of a historic three-peat.
- Week 10 (Nov. 10) vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 11 (Nov. 17) at Buffalo Bills
- Week 12 (Nov. 24) at Carolina Panthers
- Week 13 (Nov. 29) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The next two weeks might not be perfect, but there is still plenty of value in Hunt in the short term. I’m operating under the assumption that Pacheco’s return to action and his return to the 20.5 touches he averaged through two weeks are not the same thing, giving me confidence that Hunt, at the very least, can be penciled into fantasy lineups through Week 13.
Be aware: Week 14, for some reason, is a massive week for byes (Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders). If you’re dealing with a thin running back room, and most of us are, you need to be prepared for Hunt’s profile to carry more risk than reward at the moment in time.
Hunt is a locked-in fantasy asset until Pacheco returns — I expect this high-volume role to stick until then.
Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. MIA)
Stop the presses, Kyren Williams was held out of the end zone last week, the first time in 11 regular season games. Fantasy scoring hasn’t been a problem for Los Angeles’ RB1 because of the touchdowns, but without the benefit of reaching paydirt last week, Williams finished outside of the RB2 tier for the first time this season and his inefficiency was highlighted.
This isn’t a particularly strong offense; considering Williams hasn’t shown the ability to break off chunk gains (he’s failed to have a rush gain more than 17 yards in seven of his past eight), the floor is concerning.
Of course, that doesn’t project as a problem this week against the defense with the highest opponent rush rate in the league, but I thought I’d plant the seed moving forward — there are a handful of running backs that are essentially bulletproof, and Williams isn’t at that level.
Najee Harris | PIT (at WAS)
Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, and Najee Harris were the only running backs to post top-17 numbers at the position in Weeks 6, 7, and 8. Do I trust Harris at that level? Not even close, but there is no denying that he has looked spry lately. Given his role, facing the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL doesn’t seem like the spot for the good times to stop.
Last week, all three Giants with a first-quarter rush attempt against the Commanders had a gain of 10+ yards in the first 15 minutes (Tyrone Tracy Jr., Devin Singletary, and Daniel Jones). These past three games for Harris have seen him produce 25.2% over expectation, the second-best three-game run of his career (Weeks 11-13, 2022). That sort of form in this matchup lands him inside of my top 20 this weekend.
Rachaad White | TB (vs. SF)
If you thought Rachaad White was a maddening fantasy asset when he was a featured member of this offense, allow me to introduce you to the current version. On Monday night against the Chiefs, he had six opportunities, a second straight week of decline, and a role that isn’t usually of any interest to us.
But … in an offense that is void of playmakers, he somehow keeps paying the fantasy bills (four touchdowns over the past three weeks despite totaling just 33 touches over that stretch). From a process standpoint, fading White makes all the sense in the world. However, I’ve hedged that bet a bit by labeling him as the RB27 because his versatility will be valued in this spot, as I’m not sure any other Buccaneer will have success.
For the season, opponents have completed 37 of 43 passes (86%) thrown to running backs against the 49ers, giving White the path to pay off a limited role once again. By no means is he a must-start in this difficult matchup, but I’d play him over the dart-throw range of receivers (the Rome Odunze-Jordan Addison tier).
Raheem Mostert | MIA (at LAR)
Raheem Mostert was handed the ball for five of Miami’s first eight rushing attempts last week against the Bills, but he ended the week with an underwhelming 23.3% snap share, less than half of his rate from the week before against the Cardinals.
If you want to chase a touchdown in a given week, Mostert isn’t a bad bet, but counting on him every week comes with more risk than reward as long as De’Von Achane is healthy. Tua Tagovailoa’s return has benefited Tyreek Hill and Achane at a high level, leaving only scraps for Mostert and Jaylen Waddle.
The veteran back should remain rostered due to the offense’s potency and his proven ability to succeed in scoring situations, but he’s not the type of player you’re starting consistently but rather when your roster puts you in a tough spot and you have no volume-based plays at your disposal.
Ray Davis | BUF (at IND)
Ray Davis took a 63-yard pass to the house last week, and he continues to impress with his decisive running style. He’s a poor man’s Isiah Pacheco in terms of running hard, and that’s an easy skill set to buy into, but James Cook is pretty clearly the man in Buffalo. That gives Davis more value to Buffalo’s offense as a whole than fantasy rosters.
In Week 9, Davis’ snap share was down to 13.6% (21.7% in Week 8 against the Seahawks), further closing out any hope of him positioning himself for stand-alone value down the stretch of his rookie season.
Do you know what Davis is? He’s a young Raheem Mostert but with a mobile QB.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at CHI)
Rhamondre Stevenson touched the ball on three of New England’s first four plays in the loss to the Titans last week, proof positive that this team, while wanting to develop Drake Maye in a meaningful way, still wants to keep defenses honest with their lead back.
Stevenson has scored four times over the past two weeks despite none of his 30 carries gaining more than seven yards over that stretch — he’s boring, but he’s a volume back in an offense that has been trending up since the rookie took over.
It’s rarely pretty, but a profile that includes five RB1 finishes deserves to be starting for you in all formats, even against the third-best red-zone defense in the league. I doubt Stevenson is the reason you win your matchup in Week 10, but if he’s not the reason you lose it, that’ll work as you bank on the rest of your roster to do the heavy lifting.
Rico Dowdle | DAL (vs. PHI)
It’s pretty clear that the Ezekiel Elliott thing has run its course, and Rico Dowdle is the beneficiary (Week 9: 71.6% snap share, his first time over 51% this season). His touchdown catch last week looked less like an elite athlete and more like a baby deer, learning how to walk on a frozen pond while trying to juggle, but all points count the same, right?
Dowdle has seen at least five targets in four different games this season; with his carry count no longer much of an obstacle, he deserves to be locked in as a Flex play at worst, even against the NFL’s sixth-best red-zone defense (45.8% touchdown rate).
Saquon Barkley | PHI (at DAL)
Could the Eagles have the best quarterback and running back in fantasy this season? The duo connected on a perfectly executed fade on Philadelphia’s second drive last week for a 20-yard score and, of course, you’ve seen the backward Saquon Barkley hurdle that defies logic and potentially gravity.
He has reached 110 yards from scrimmage in seven of eight games, and twice this season has had a 20+ yard rush AND reception. If you need more ammo for the pro-Barkley angle, let me present to you his last four games against the NFC East:
- 25 PPR points per game
- 1.2 PPR points per touch
- 41.2% production over expectation
Tank Bigsby | JAX (vs. MIN)
Do you want some bar trivia? Ask someone to name the four running backs this season with as many or more 10+ yard runs as runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Any guesses? No?
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Jonathan Taylor
- Derrick Henry
- Tank Bigsby
No big deal, just three of the best running backs in the game and Bigsby. By no means am I putting the second-year Jaguar in that tier, but it is good to remember a note like that after a brutal Week 9 (eight carries for 22 yards).
The Jaguars might not beat the Vikings this week, but them holding the ball for more than the 21:48 they did last week against the Eagles is likely; that is why I’m OK with considering Bigsby a low-end RB2 in all formats this weekend.
Travis Etienne Jr. got Jacksonville’s first carry last week, but when all was said and done, Bigsby was on the field for over 54% of the offensive snaps for a third straight game.
Taylor was unable to break the seal of this Minnesota run defense last week, and that resulted in him underachieving. Bigsby suffers a similar fate, though I’m more inclined to trust the process with the thought being that attacking an overly aggressive defense with creative run designs can be profitable.
I suspect that Bigsby won’t be popular in DFS tournaments — I’ll be overweight as I think it’s a strong profile to consider when it comes to his ability to gain ground against the field.
Tony Pollard | TEN (at LAC)
Tony Pollard entered Week 9 with a questionable tag due to a foot injury, but he not only played but logged his third straight game with a snap share north of 80%. He didn’t show any ill effects (a 32-yard run on the first drive, his second-longest gain of the season), and while his touchdown was pulled off the board due to a holding penalty, he showed the ability to stop on a dime and accelerate.
The Titans are a tough watch, but Tony Pollard’s role is nothing short of elite — he has multiple catches in every game and at least 16 carries in seven of eight. The Chargers boast a top-10 run defense across the board, but efficiency isn’t why you’re plugging in Pollard as your RB2. If Tennessee can keep this game close, another 18-20 touch effort is likely and that’s enough to feel good about playing Tennessee’s lead back.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs. MIN)
Travis Eitienne Jr. entered 2024 as a running back with breakout potential — safe to say that hasn’t come to fruition. He hasn’t been on the field for 40% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps since September, and why would we expect that to change as he continues to battle through a hamstring injury?
Let’s not get out of control, Etienne is still roster-worthy. He got the first carry of the game last week, and part of his underwhelming touch count was the result of Jacksonville’s offense being on the field for just 51 plays (Philadelphia: 73 plays). Tank Bigsby isn’t exactly a proven entity, and that makes this a fluid situation, even if you don’t have a clear path to considering Etienne at this moment in time.
Trey Benson | ARI (vs. NYJ)
Dynasty managers had to like what they saw from Trey Benson last week against the Bears, and he’s a sharp add in deeper leagues given the checkered health history of James Conner. We know that the veteran back has struggled to make it through an entire season for his career, so while there are no signs of an injury at the moment, getting ahead of things is wise.
Benson was on the field for 26.3% of snaps last week, his most since Week 2. This team is going to be competitive down the stretch, and that means they are going to continue to lean heavily on Conner (18+ carries with multiple catches in three straight games). Benson isn’t going to hold stand-alone value, but in terms of starting RBs whose health I’d be most likely to bet against, Conner is near the top of that list.
Not all waiver wire additions are designed to help you today. The goal is to build a superteam for the end of December, and Benson fits that mold.
Trey Sermon | IND (vs. BUF)
There are roughly half a dozen running back handcuffs that offer no stand-alone value and are worthy of keeping stashed for the remainder of the season.
Trey Sermon is not on that list.
Not only has he struggled when given the rock (47 carries and 10 catches this season and yet he’s still in search of his first 20-yard gain), but the team has shown zero hesitation in going back to Jonathan Taylor in a true bellcow role.
Tyler Goodson was better than Sermon during Taylor’s absence, making this a mess of a situation even if an injury were to occur. Are you really stashing a running back who might work into a committee for an underwhelming offense?
I’m not. Life’s too short to burn a roster spot on that type. I’d rather add Khalil Herbert post-trade or gamble on Kimani Vidal in Los Angeles.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (at LAC)
Entering this season, with Derrick Henry taking his talents to Baltimore, there was hope that Tyjae Spears, a third-round pick in 2023 who was on the field for the majority of Tennessee’s offensive plays last season, would see his role expand to that of a weekly fantasy asset.
To say that hasn’t happened would be an understatement. Spears has failed to touch the ball more than eight times in four of his five games and is dealing with a hamstring injury that has held him out of three straight games. The team elected to test his health in the middle of last week before holding him out following the session, an indicator that this soft-tissue issue is lingering.
With Tony Pollard operating at full strength as well, I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to hold onto Spears and hope for a role increase when deemed healthy, but by no means is that something you have to do. Over the next three weeks, 44% of the league has their byes, meaning fantasy managers are going to need to feel good about their depth. It’s hard to feel that way about Spears with this hamstring injury lingering and a limited role in the first place.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at NO)
Tyler Allgeier saw his snap share dip to 23.2% last week, down from the 36.7% rate in Week 8 against the Buccaneers. On the bright side, this is a divisional matchup, and the Falcons have been much more willing to give their RB2 more run in such spots — over 34% of snaps in every divisional game this season (under 24% in every other game).
That’s a nice note for hopeful Best Ball managers or people max entering DFS contests (41.2% of the snaps is Allgeier’s highwater mark for the season, which was in Week 4 against these Saints). However, season-long, we know what Allgeier is — an elite handcuff that is only on your roster as a bet against Bijan Robinson’s health.
Allgeier has one top 30 on his résumé this season, and I’d be surprised if he adds to that total this week.
Tyler Goodson | IND (vs. BUF)
Not all elite running backs need to be handcuffed, and Jonathan Taylor is as good an example of that as anyone. Not only are we unsure as to who would lead the backfield in opportunities if JT were to go down again (my money would be on Tyler Goodson over Trey Sermon, but a debate could certainly be had), but there is no hope for stand-alone value without an injury.
Week 9 snap shares:
- Taylor: 71.4%
- Sermon: 26.5%
- Goodson: 2%
Goodson is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with one score on 35 touches. He was fine given the opportunity, but “fine” isn’t cutting it this time of year, not with RB1 at full strength. You can feel good about moving on and freeing up a roster spot.