Chicago Bears RB Roschon Johnson had chances to shine as a rookie but was unable to really get his feet under him. In a revamped Bears offense featuring a number of new weapons, is there any hope for Johnson’s fantasy football value this season?
Roschon Johnson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Johnson is a very interesting player to evaluate because you can sort of see what you want to see. If you are pro-Johnson, he’s someone who averaged 4.9 yards per touch (20th in the NFL) with 3.48 yards per touch (24th).
Johnson averaged 4.4 yards per carry and was involved more than you’d expect a rookie in a crowded backfield to be in the passing game, with a 9.5% target share.
In his lone game with a 70% snap share, Johnson posted 12.5 fantasy points, finishing inside the top 24 on the week. Now entering his second season, he should be able to improve and will have every chance to earn the RB2 role behind D’Andre Swift.
If you are anti-Johnson, you could point to his 36th-ranked 16.5% evaded tackles per touch rate and 2.5% rate of carries for 15+ yards, which is 45th in the league. Johnson’s film also shows some concerning issues, such as his tendency to be indecisive and not get up the field when the opportunity presents itself.
Furthermore, the Bears didn’t exactly have any established stars last season. Yet, even when Khalil Herbert went down, D’Onta Foreman was the feature back. Johnson was a pretty distant third, finishing the season with a total of four games with double-digit fantasy points.
Ahead of the 2024 season, the Bears set out to revamp their offense. They’ve got a new quarterback, two new wide receivers, and, most importantly for Johnson, a new running back.
The Bears didn’t pay Swift to be the backup. While it’s unlikely he’s a three-down back, Swift will be the lead RB. Ideally, Johnson would serve as the RB2, potentially giving him standalone RB4 value with RB2 upside if Swift were to get hurt. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that’s the case.
Herbert is still on the team. He played ahead of Johnson last season and would be better suited for a heavy workload if something were to happen to Swift. Plus, we saw what happened last season when Chicago sustained injuries to its backfield — it wasn’t Johnson who was given the opportunity.
Johnson’s ADP sits at RB61 and is right on the precipice of being drafted in most fantasy leagues. I have him ranked as my RB66, which is a meaningless difference this far down the rankings.
Johnson is not someone I’m looking to target. When drafting handcuff running backs, we want players reasonably likely to take over if the starter gets hurt, as well as those capable of producing reasonably close to what the main back can do.
I’m not confident Johnson stands to meaningfully benefit from a Swift injury, nor am I confident he can produce at a fantasy-relevant level in a timeshare. As a result, Johnson is not someone fantasy managers should be looking to target.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Roschon Johnson
Transparency is always key in the fantasy football industry. Admittedly, I was confident Johnson was going to supplant Herbert atop the Bears depth chart at some point in the middle of last season. While there were encouraging flashes from time to time, Johnson failed to live up to my expectations.
Was Johnson a complete scrub when he was given opportunities in 2023? Absolutely not. His 561 total yards and two scores on 115 total touches (4.35 yards per carry) proved he can contribute on all three downs with ample-enough efficiency when on the field. Yet, Johnson never saw 10 carries or rushed for over 40 yards in a single game last year.
The Bears simply didn’t see enough from Johnson his rookie year, which prompted the organization to add RB D’Andre Swift very early in free agency, signing him to a three-year deal to bolster a backfield that felt like a true committee last year.
Sure, Swift will undoubtedly have the inside track to the leading role in this backfield. It doesn’t help Johnson’s outlook either that Swift is a more dynamic weapon in the passing game — which could limit the second-year back’s opportunities to see the field.