Houston Texans wide receiver Robert Woods is coming off a disappointing season where he showed serious signs of decline. After one year in Tennessee, Woods now finds himself with a rookie quarterback and a shallow depth chart. Is there any hope for a late-career revival? What is Woods’ fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Robert Woods’ Fantasy Outlook
Just two short years ago, Woods averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game. He had been a mid-to-high WR2 every season from 2017-2021. Of course, something quite important happened in that 2021 season. Woods tore his ACL a little over halfway through it.
Woods was able to return by Week 1 of the 2022 season, but he had a lot working against him. The Rams cut him, and he signed with the far less pass-friendly Titans. He was 30 years old. And he was recovering from a torn ACL.
Unsurprisingly, Woods had the worst season of his career, averaging just 6.8 ppg. Woods had fewer receiving yards in 17 games than he did in nine the previous season.
It’s probably unfair to fully blame Woods for his disastrous 2022 season, but his efficiency numbers completely cratered. We can’t put it all on Ryan Tannehill.
Woods still saw a respectable 20.7% target share, but his ability to command targets on his routes run dropped for the fourth consecutive year to a 21.7% rate, 46th in the league. To be fair, Woods is a phenomenal blocker, so it is not surprising that he was asked to block for Derrick Henry quite often.
Woods averaged just 1.27 yards per route run, 79th in the league, and 5.9 yards per target, 97th. It’s possible the knee had something to do with it, but by every measure, Woods looked washed.
Now, Woods finds himself in Houston where, once again, he has little competition for targets. The question is whether Woods has anything left at age 31.
Receivers returning from ACL tears typically perform better in their second year back, but Woods is older and not in the best situation. While Woods should be able to command a high target share, it’s going to be on what should be a run-first offense with a rookie quarterback.
I like C.J. Stroud. I think he will end up being a solid starter in this league. But he’s still a rookie. As Fantasy Footballers pointed out, since 2004, 70% of rookie quarterbacks failed to support so much as a WR3 in fantasy. A similar study by JJ Zachariason revealed that no rookie QB has ever supported two top-40 receivers.
Essentially, we don’t want pass catchers playing with rookie quarterbacks, even when those rookies are elite prospects. Stroud, while likely good, is not an elite prospect anyway.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Woods at His ADP?
The Texans might have the most uncertainty at wide receiver in the NFL. Right now, Nico Collins and Woods are slated to be the team’s starting two receivers. But would it really be a shock if John Metchie, Tank Dell, or Noah Brown worked their way into more targets? There are just a lot of unknowns here, which makes banking on anyone in fantasy a risky endeavor.
The situation with the ADP of Texans receivers is unlike anything I can remember. Fantasy managers seem to be fading Dalton Schultz, but he’s probably the favorite to lead this team in targets. He’s certainly the highest-drafted pass catcher, by far, with an overall ADP of 136.
As for the receivers, Collins has the highest ADP at WR65. That is the lowest top receiver drafted I can ever remember. Fantasy managers are also drafting Metchie at WR70 and Dell at WR76 ahead of Woods at WR84, No. 232 overall.
Fantasy managers are confident Collins is the team’s WR1 but aren’t expecting much in the way of production. Beyond him, you should expect no other Texans receiver to be selected in fantasy drafts.
My projections have Woods at 63 catches for 661 yards and 3.4 touchdowns. I have him averaging 9.2 ppg and finishing as the WR52. This is obviously well ahead of his ADP, but it’s not exactly needle-moving numbers.
I have Woods ranked as my WR66. While I do think he will post better numbers than his ADP suggests, I’m not really interested in anyone on the Texans outside of their running backs. You can find 9 ppg if you need it. Having a WR7 that finishes as a WR5 doesn’t do anything for your fantasy team. Pass on Woods in 2023 fantasy drafts.
